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: Anonymous (ID: ki7ui_ibg ) 02/07/22(Mon)18:30:02 No.36116337 „

Let me tell you a bit about how this is gonna end. By way of background, I'm a mathematician with a specialization in applied mathematics of social interactions, such as game theory. I'm what you would probably describe as glowie adjacent. I hope I've got the lingo correct.

The problem Trudeau has is that he has few, narrowly circumscribed bases of power that are enough to get elected, but not enough to govern against the will of the people.

Those are very different things. So that leaves him with very serious limits on what he can accomplish in this situation. The truckers are smart.

They did not all converge on Ottawa, but rather organized themselves locally and create many small spots of trouble. In quantitative studies of insurgency, this is the 'ink spot' model: local, decentralized warfare that relies on local support.

Quite simply put, this is for the truckers to lose. If they can outlast the government, which may mean as little as another week, they will break it. Trudeau needs to win every interaction to stay in power. All the truckers have to do is "not lose".

A draw is always in their favor, and the situation in most places right now is a draw at best: the Mounties huff and puff, but have not been able to deal with or disperse a single protest.

That's not unsurprising, by the way. Truckers use a method originally devised for naval warfare called blockshipping: sinking ships to block a strategic narrows or harbor entrance. There is literally no economical way of dealing with this tactic. Truckers know this.

Their worst-case scenario, losing their jobs and their trucks by just walking away, STILL imposes a massive cost on the government. When the worst case scenario is that both you and your opponent lose, you have everything to gain. There is no dominant strategy here for Trudeau. There's no clear way to victory anymore for him. It's all about how badly he loses now.