No war is coming. It is a complete fabrication. It is Washington cynically using the mainstream media to ratchet up American hysteria, a literal “Wag the Dog” psyop to distract from the colossal problems in the US.

When “Russian troop movements” talk started in November, people who know started pointing out that, number one, the troops were closer to Belarus than to Ukraine, and number two, the troops were actually in their regular bases, and not deployed as if preparing for war.

As the US economy deteriorated and inflation became too big to ignore, there was more talk of the “Russian invasion of Ukraine!“

Putin took advantage of this, of course, judo master that he is. He used this non-crisis to put pressure on the Europeans and make them split from the Americans. Because European and American interests diverge significantly insofar as their relationship to Russia is concerned. It is extremely cheap for Russia to have its soldiers marching around in their own bases, and deploy medical gear right outside their barracks, and then watch as the Americans freak out about it, further driving a wedge between the US and Europe.

How do I know that the leadership in the west does not actually believe any war is imminent? Very simple: The German chancellor and the French president are visiting Kiev and Moscow, and the Americans have openly said that they will not disconnect Russia from SWIFT. If they truly thought that a war was about to break out, they would be acting very, very differently, and Russia would have been disconnected from SWIFT quite some time ago.

How do I know that the people of Ukraine do not believe that a war is imminent? Simple: The exchange rate. It hasn’t really moved. In 2014-15, the grivna dropped precipitously (>50%) on three separate occasions. But so far, throughout this entire crisis, the grivna has dropped in the single digit percentage points. Another clue: Nobody is leaving Kharkiv. Not by plane, and not by car. Last week I flew out to Kiev (the plane was at about 75% capacity, 2/3 business people, another clue), and the same thing was going on there — nobody was preparing for war, not even in the slightest. Do keep in mind, roughly half the population of Ukraine is ethnically Russian, and a great many of them have close ties to family in Mother Russia. Kharkiv is a Russian city, and that’s a fact. So with all these strong ties, if word was coming that an actual war was imminent, people would be a lot more nervous, and they wouldn’t be placidly going about their day. But they ARE going about their day as if nothing’s going on. Because nothing is going on"