This is what I observed (and read other people's observations...people who know a lot more about storms than me):
People were commenting how the windspeed measurements at landfall were nowhere near Cat 4. Maybe this can be explained by elevation of measurement in the storm, I don't know. But NOAA predicted the landfall location pretty spot on, which happened to be a rural, sparsely populated area.
Pre-landfall, NOAA (NHC) showed the eye and cone of uncertainty heading pretty much due north to Atlanta (right over my house), then curving westward to end up in Nashville. They stuck to this path even when it was clear the storm went further east immediately after landfall. The NHC's last update (showing path, predicted windspeeds, etc) was at 11 pm, right at landfall. I don't believe they updated anything until the storm was already approaching SC. Windspeeds for Georgia were mild gusts (maybe 30-40 mph in the east of the state, Augusta, Savannah) and 80-90 in Atlanta. They never updated these numbers. When the storm hit Valdosta, about an hour after landfall, it was I believe Cat 2 strength, and was already outside NHC's cone of uncertainty. The storm kept heading NE, directly towards Augusta.
Looking at the spaghetti models, the NHC was the only one that really showed the storm going N, all the other models showed it going NE. But the NHC is who everybody follows, and apparently they had all the data from the other models, showing it going east, but chose to ignore it.
Augusta was hit head on by the eastern eyewall with Cat 1-2 winds, completely unexpectedly. Savannah got hit hard by the eastern part of the storm (the worst place to be), but the storm was a lot stronger than predicted because it was 150 miles east of where it was supposed to be. Nobody was warned about the closeness of the storm. The Greenville NWS was apparently the only weather center actually paying attention, and sent out warnings, but everyone was asleep. It then ravaged SC, and headed up for a near-direct hit to NC, which was only predicted to get some outer winds and rain (and not nearly as much rain as they got). Pre-landfall, there were warnings in NC about flooding, but I don't think anybody imagined the magnitude of what they were hit with.
Throughout this whole time, I watched the NHC's prediction, and they just moved the starting point of the cone of uncertainty to where the hurricane was at various points. It still, up to the time I went to bed at 5 am, showed the end point near Atlanta, and Accuweather and The Weather Channel said where I was should be getting 60 mph winds right then. It was completely calm outside. It's like they really wanted that storm to hit ATL. We got a little flooding in the city (mostly from the pre-storm cold front), but almost no winds where I am.
Mount Mitchell in NC registered 106 mph wind gusts. That is not a tropical storm. But I think they had "officially" downgraded it by that point.
My thoughts, they said the storm was Cat 4 at landfall, which it may or may not have been, but of course they want to push the narrative that we're having more frequent, stronger storms, because of "climate change," so I wouldn't be surprised if they fudged the data a bit. Yes, there was quite a bit of damage in FL, but people were prepared there, and the storm winds weren't measured as high as a Cat 4, as far as I've seen people reporting. Then, they wanted people in east GA, SC, and especially NC to be completely unprepared for the magnitude of what they were about to be hit with. And yes, the storm moved way faster than one would think a storm should move.
In my opinion, it was at the very least negligence, or overconfidence in their model. But it seemed very deliberate and suspicious how they never updated the path of the storm to reflect its actual path, leaving the hardest hit areas completely blindsided, and us up in Atlanta terrified of a storm that never came.
That was me. I'll post more details in this thread.
They got a much more direct hit than what was predicted. No one was expecting it to be that bad. I grew up in E TN and spent a lot of time in W NC growing up. The infrastructure is pretty bad. I-40 has always had tons of problems so no surprise it washed out. Dams are old. I worry about how many bodies they're going to find once the waters recede. There should have been evacuations, but again, the storm was "predicted" to go further west and the forecasts weren't updated until the storm was already there. They knew there was going to be flooding, but they got much more rain and wind than they were "supposed" to.
I checked the Augusta (GA) and Greenville (SC) subreddits just after the storm and found day-old posts laughing off the storm, with everybody saying "nah, it's gonna hit Atlanta, we'll be fine." Greenville lost 100% power and has no water for at least a week. Augusta was slammed with the eye. Nobody was expecting this because they weren't really warned it was heading toward them, even when radar showed it clearly was.
I was watching this storm closely all night, because the eye was "predicted" to head right over my house (north of Atlanta), with wind gusts 60+ mph. We have 100 foot trees all around my house so I was terrified. The NHC and all weather stations that listen to them kept showing the eye and cone of uncertainty going up towards Atlanta. When Helene hit Valdosta, she was already outside the cone, but the NHC didn't update anything. While the eastern side of a hurricane is always worse, places like Augusta (150 miles from me) were supposed to only get some milder wind gusts. Same with SC. At 5 am, when the storm was supposed to be on top of us, we didn't even have a breeze (just rain), and Augusta was getting hit with the eye. Still, the NHC stubbornly clung to their modeling that it was going to now make a sharp west turn and still hit Atlanta. Augusta was totally unprepared. SC too. NC wasn't expecting as direct of a hit as they got. Greenville NWS was the only one trying to tell everyone what was coming. All the other hurricane models apparently showed the storm hitting further east, but the NHC ignored all these other models' data and kept pushing their inaccurate one, even well after the storm was clearly on another path. NC/TN was expecting rain and some winds, but nothing like what they got. Mount Mitchell registered 106 mph gusts. It was so much worse than it was predicted to be. Add in to that the 2 days of rain in W NC and it was a recipe for disaster. I know hurricane prediction can be iffy, and it would have been bad even if people knew what was coming, but this seemed almost purposeful by the NHC to keep people from being adequately warned and prepared.
Yes, that is what I use. The horse paste is 1.87% ivermectin. Soolantra is only 1%, and without insurance it would be $500 a month. No thanks, I'll take the $7.99 tube of horsey paste that lasts forever!
Nope, I just use it once a week and it keeps all the rosacea away. I can go longer without it, but my rosacea was so bad I just smear it on once a week anyway.
I second the topical ivermectin comment. It's very safe. I am not sure about eczema, but it got rid of my horrible rosacea very quickly, with no side effects or skin irritation. Worth a shot to see if it works for eczema too. I use the horse paste and just smear a tiny bit on the affected areas before bed about 1x per week.
My Mom had migraines all her life. Docs put her on a large cocktail of medications, for many years, without trying to figure out the root cause. Only about 5 years ago we figured out she just wasn't drinking enough water. She's just never thirsty, but when she started forcing herself to drink more water, the migraines stopped.
The actual process of recycling plastic takes more energy and puts out far more greenhouse gasses than making virgin plastic, but you'll never hear the environmentalists admit to that.
I don't see how anybody could be an "undecided voter" at this point, unless they've been living under a rock for the last 8 years.
Yeah, I have a (lefty) former friend who said "they're eating dogs?!?" on facebook, and several people chimed in saying, no it's been debunked. One person said it was true, and my friend replied "well I haven't looked into it much but I trust Snopes and Snopes says it's unfounded." She's such an idiot.
Lots of uninformed over on reddit. Just checked an r/politics megathread on the debate and good grief, every single comment is pro-Kamala. They think she's doing great. Sheesh.
You are correct.
In addition to the other answers, which are totally correct, I would add that trips to the gynecologist generally go like this: "oh, every woman thinks she has bad periods, you're just blowing it out of proportion, here try this pill...if this one doesn't help there are lots more to try," rather than even trying to figure out what is wrong. I think a lot of women are on to the fact now that these docs are compensated to prescribe. It erodes our trust in all doctors to be treated this way by one type of doctor.
NW Georgia here...we've had very little rain too. My backyard already looks like it's fall, and fall usually doesn't come until late October here. It's threatened to rain a few times, power's even gone out, but then it drops a measly 1/8" of rain.
Agree 100%. You can get a cheap used copy on ebay for a couple bucks. I got a copy, it's currently in the 'politics and foreign policy' section of my bookshelf (not on the fiction bookshelf haha).
It's not just the Vatican. Read any early Communist works (Hess, Marx, Trotsky) and there is an overarching theme...Germany must perish.
My social was there, but thankfully my credit has been frozen for years. I had 6 results but all of them had an address that hasn't existed since 2007 (house was torn down), a 20 year old phone number, and some had the wrong birthdate. Weird.
Yeah, you're definitely not alone...it seems like prescribing birth control is just about all gynos know how to do. Good luck with the advil, just be aware that, like all drugs, it can cause problems if you overdo it (stomach bleeding, ulcers), so only use it when you really need it and try not to take it too regularly when you're not on your period.
One more thing you might want to check out. I don't know if it will help you, but it's worth looking into. There's a book called the "Period Repair Manual" by Lara Briden. I just got a copy so I haven't had a chance to read it, but I've heard good things about it. It's full of natural ways (diet, vitamins, etc) to try to make your periods more manageable. You can get a copy off of ebay for only a few bucks, and it's also available as an ebook.
I have had horrid periods throughout my life. The only thing a doctor would ever do was put me on birth control. I'm pretty sure I have PCOS, fibroids, or endo, but I have never been diagnosed because every gyno insists I try birth control before anything else. And the birth control worked (at least when I was younger, as I got older I had horroble reactions), so they still wouldn't evaluate me further. See if you can get an ultrasound. I've never been able to get one, but I probably should have had one when I was 15.
I read a great tip on Reddit, of all places. Tell your gyno that you're concerned about your fertility, and you're worried these menstrual problems indicate something that will affect your fertility in the future. That should get them to bend over backwards to find out what's wrong. I wish I had thought of that when I was young. Now I'm too old for that to work.
Barring any of that, I second the ibuprofin. I have to take 4 at a time when my cramps are at their worst. But be careful with it.
The last tetanus shot I had was in 2014, when I was 13. I was net fishing in Sarasota Bay, slipped, and sliced my leg open really deep on a barnacle. I had to get 30 stiches in 3 layers. I remember they gave me a tetanus shot, because I didn't know when my last one had been (I'm sure I was forced to get one younger), and "it's a really deep cut you need it" followed by a bunch of scare tactics. Of course I was young so I didn't know any better. Now I know there is no way I would have gotten tetanus from falling into salt water and cutting my flesh on a barnacle. Thankfully I don't remember having any bad reaction to it.
Perfect song for Kamala: Mr. Vegas' "She's a Ho."
I would normally recommend ebay for books that Amazon won't sell, but not in this case. Sheesh, some serious price gouging going on. Cheapest buy-it-now is $444.
Wow that was hard to read.
I'm in Marietta. We were hunkered down and expected the worst, since we have tons of huge trees all around our house. I was so relieved it didn't hit us, but I really feel for the people who were hit. I grew up in east TN and my grandparents lived outside of Asheville and we went there a lot, so I'm pretty familiar with the area. My parents went to Chimney Rock NC just two weeks ago. They love the place. My Mom was heartbroken when I sent her the news it was wiped off the map. I hope your son is doing ok and can get to the resources he needs.