Just tried to run the numbers on this, but it's impossible to have any precision with this calculation since we're missing the posts greater than 20 minutes different, and we don't know if a random sample was used (this is looking at a sample of 502 posts; based on the linked post number, I would assume 3727 posts had been posted by this point). Given that we're looking at only 20% of the posts, it would be possible to cherry pick such that it gave the desired mathematically impossible outcome.
To be clear, I'm not saying this analysis is incorrect, just that as it stands it requires more thorough vetting, since the given data doesn't stand on its own.
EDIT:
Performing a simple standard deviation based probability calculation over this limited dataset gives about a 2% chance of having 36 zero-deltas given the distribution of posts.
EDIT2:
If we really want to calculate the probability of this, we would need to get Trump's posting intervals from the beginning of Q's posts up until this post. Then we need to do the same for Q's posts. It's pretty simple at that point to run a monte carlo analysis randomizing the order of intervals between posts to figure out the difference between the actual post intervals and random chance.
Just tried to run the numbers on this, but it's impossible to have any precision with this calculation since we're missing the posts greater than 20 minutes different, and we don't know if a random sample was used (this is looking at a sample of 502 posts; based on the linked post number, I would assume 3727 posts had been posted by this point). Given that we're looking at only 20% of the posts, it would be possible to cherry pick such that it gave the desired mathematically impossible outcome.
To be clear, I'm not saying this analysis is incorrect, just that as it stands it requires more thorough vetting, since the given data doesn't stand on its own.
EDIT:
Performing a simple standard deviation based probability calculation over this limited dataset gives about a 2% chance of having 36 zero-deltas given the distribution of posts.
EDIT2:
If we really want to calculate the probability of this, we would need to get Trump's posting frequency and its standard deviation from the beginning of Q's posts up until this post. Then we need to do the same for Q's posts. It's pretty simple at that point to run a monte carlo analysis randomizing the order of intervals between posts to figure out the difference between the actual post intervals and random chance.
Just tried to run the numbers on this, but it's impossible to have any precision with this calculation since we're missing the posts greater than 20 minutes different, and we don't know if a random sample was used (this is looking at a sample of 502 posts; based on the linked post number, I would assume 3727 posts had been posted by this point). Given that we're looking at only 20% of the posts, it would be possible to cherry pick such that it gave the desired mathematically impossible outcome.
To be clear, I'm not saying this analysis is incorrect, just that as it stands it requires more thorough vetting, since the given data doesn't stand on its own.
EDIT: Performing a simple standard deviation based probability calculation over this limited dataset gives about a 2% chance of having 36 zero-deltas given the distribution of posts.
Just tried to run the numbers on this, but it's impossible to have any precision with this calculation since we're missing the posts greater than 20 minutes different, and we don't know if a random sample was used (this is looking at a sample of 502 posts; based on the linked post number, I would assume 3727 posts had been posted by this point). Given that we're looking at only 20% of the posts, it would be possible to cherry pick such that it gave the desired mathematically impossible outcome.
To be clear, I'm not saying this analysis is incorrect, just that as it stands it requires more thorough vetting, since the given data doesn't stand on its own.
EDIT: Performing a simple standard deviation based probability calculation, there's about a 2% chance of having 36 zero-deltas given the distribution of posts.
Just tried to run the numbers on this, but it's impossible to have any precision with this calculation since we're missing the posts greater than 20 minutes different, and we don't know if a random sample was used (this is looking at a sample of 502 posts; based on the linked post number, I would assume 3727 posts had been posted by this point). Given that we're looking at only 20% of the posts, it would be possible to cherry pick such that it gave the desired mathematically impossible outcome.
To be clear, I'm not saying this analysis is incorrect, just that as it stands it requires more thorough vetting, since the given data doesn't stand on its own.