Command,

Attached is a recent message from SECDEF on vaccine and the requirement. Bottom line, expect it to be mandatory by mid SEP, or whenever FDA grants full approval, which could be as early as late Aug. Some additional bullets and info about the recent rise in Delta cases. Get vaccinated and don’t gamble with your health by deferring any longer. Though we are seeing some breakthrough cases, the symptoms and impacts are far different for those vaccinated versus unvaccinated.

Vr/ XO

• Over the last month U.S. case rates have increased 700%, hospitalizations are up nearly 400%, deaths are up 120%, and unfortunately the trend continues – over the last week case rates and hospitalizations are both up ~40%, and deaths are up 54%. (also concerning is that hospitalizations and deaths typically lag behind case rates by 2-3 weeks, so we will expect those to keep rising).
• Likewise, we see similar local trends with case rates, hospitalizations and deaths in SD County.
• The vast majority of current hospitalizations and deaths are among unvaccinated.
• As expected, Delta variant has taken over and now comprises ~95% of all new U.S. COVID infections.
• Delta is twice as contagious as the other SARS-CoV-2 variants, and spreads >200% more rapidly than the original strain. This is d/t substantially higher viral loads (over 1000x’s higher the original strain), with a shorter incubation period.
• Data suggests Delta likely causes more severe illness than previous strains, which is seen predominantly among unvaccinated individuals. (Unvaccinated have ~10x’s higher risk of severe disease and death).
• While vaccinated individuals may contract the Delta variant and spread to others while symptomatic, their infections tend to be mild, and they appear to be infectious for a shorter period of time (as evidenced by viral loads dropping more rapidly in vaccinated individuals).
• Unvaccinated populations remain the greatest concern to community transmission, as they are much more likely to contract/transmit/sustain the virus.
• COVID vaccines in the U.S. have been shown to prevent symptomatic and asymptomatic infection; and are highly effective at preventing severe disease, hospitalization and death, including against the Delta variant. Increasing the proportion of the vaccinated U.S. (and global) population is critical to combating the Delta variant.
• Pfizer vaccine effectiveness (VE): 6-month f/u study in 6 countries showed overall VE of 91%, and 97% against severe disease. For Delta variant in particular, the UK study showed VE of 79% against all confirmed infection and 88% against symptomatic infection, compared with 92% and 93% respectively for Alpha variant. More recent data from Colorado MMWR has similar findings. (i.e., slightly lower VE against Delta, but still very good).
• All COVID vaccines in the U.S. have demonstrated very good safety profiles, now with ~350 million doses given in the U.S. to date. Of note, CDC/ACIP continues to recommend COVID vaccine for 12yo+ despite rare cases of myo/pericarditis following mRNA vaccines. Per study cited in CDC Science update, rate of myocarditis following COVID infection among 12-17yo males was nearly 6x’s higher than following vaccination, and among females the rate was 21x’s higher than following vaccination.
• New MMWR data shows unvaccinated individuals are more than twice as likely to be reinfected with COVID than those who were fully vaccinated after their initial infection. Demonstrates that vaccines offer better protection than natural immunity alone, and offer substantial benefit even after prior infection.
• Lastly, while we still expect SECDEF to declare an AD mandate, it may be worth reminding your AD staff of the requirements for unvaccinated personnel if NRSW were to revert to HPCON C (i.e., CUSFF FRAGO off-base restrictions). Given current local trends, we may not be far off.

https://health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/MHS-Toolkits/TRICARE-Communications-COVID-19-Vaccine-Toolkit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/groups/families-children.html