The Brits have a lot to lose. First their Lettuce lets the cat out of the bag and reveals 'it is done' (referring to NordStream). Back in November a sub carrying Trident missiles was forced to surface in Russian waters due to an electrical fire on board. Radio hams monitoring the Baltic Sea picked up the mayday signal and triangulated the location. Now all stories say this occurred in the North Atlantic.
Some months after Nordstream and the 'electrical fire' on board the sub, fiber optic cables connecting Shetland and Faroes were 'damaged' (Russian ships ...). There is a listening post on Unst, a Shetland island, which monitors any traffic passing from the Norwegian Sea to the North Atlantic. This was effectively shut down.
These two stories suggest to me that British hubris has greatly underestimated Russian prowess and consequently they have painted themselves into a corner.
Joseph Borrell aka Jungle Joseph (EU Foreign Affairs & Security) joins Ursula van der Crazee in asking the international community to "respond to Putin's deliberate attempt to starve out the world's population."
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1682330106516185088
Leaked files suggest hidden British hand in latest Kerch Bridge strike
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/07/19/leaked-files-british-kerch-bridge-strike/
Czech Republic allows US boots on the ground, pieces moving into place
I think perhaps it's worth noting that there have been a series of naval drone strikes in the Sea of Azov. The Kerch bridge was attacked by MI:6. This second bridge strike looks to be of similar origin. Of note is the angle of attack. The second, more recent strike apparently came from the north where it's much more difficult to get an international ship with a smuggled naval drone. It's obviously easier to come from the Black Sea. It should be noted that both of these strikes were pre-dawn strikes intended to hit the bridge at a time with minimal traffic, because although the rail line could be considered a military target, the highway is well-trafficked by Russian commuters going back and forth between the mainland and the peninsula. The Ukrainians have for 8 years, always picked morning rush as optimal times for their own attacks on civilian targets.
And of course, there have been a series of high profile attempts to send naval drones into the Sevastopol naval base which have done mostly negligible damage, but did succeed in getting into the harbor. It is very likely the Brits have been involved with all of these. The timings and capabilities required to pull off the attacks indicate this strongly.
So, naturally Putin's very interested in how these attacks were pulled off so he can strengthen his defenses and stop this stuff from going on. You may have noticed the grain deal is once again in the news. Russia is alleging the the UK smuggle the naval drones past the Russian naval blockade by hiding them in civilian grain ships. They have called out specific ships in the right vicinity at the right time to match up with various attacks.
Not only have they underestimated Russian naval capabilities, they've underestimated Russian intelligence. Russia has demonstrated extremely capable signals and human intelligence systems which make clear that Russia knows precisely how the US and UK are involved in espionage and sabotage efforts in this conflict. Russia is demonstrating restraint for a reason. Putin's playing a very delicate game here that we typically don't appreciate on first inspection.
Agree with Ash, excellent analysis. Purely hypothetically, what do you see as potential next moves on the part of the collective West?
I honestly have no idea. I rely on guys like Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor to stay informed. All I really see is that the West is losing and instead of sensibly cutting their losses and telling Zelensky he's going to have to make peace, they keep pushing. The expert commentators that commonly appear on conservative podcasts keep hinting at rumors the US will continue to send more weapons and money. The catch is they really don't have anything more to give. The Europeans already emptied their own meager reserves. And now we've got 4-stars going public to tell the press that we don't have ammunition. No general would do that under normal circumstances. Strategically, this is like putting a "kick me in the balls" sign on your own chest. My read between the lines is that they've been begging the politicians to call this horror show off for many months and now, they can't fight a war with what they have and we don't have the capacity to make more.
Given that, expect that the politicians will respond by sending bigger weapons, the stuff that has been off the table because it'll be impossible to maintain it, take too long to train Ukrainians to operate it, or because they know the Ukrainians will use it in desperation to hit Russia proper and greatly escalate the war. I just heard today about JDAM bombs being used. I've heard rumors about ATACMS missile systems that can hit Crimea from the current Ukrainian lines as well. I believe they'll dip into active duty equipment as well. These globalists have no loyalty to our countries so they're perfectly happy to neuter the West's militaries if that's what it takes.
Russia's now sending a lot of shots in their late night missile barrages to Odessa. Major parts of its port have been destroyed. They had largely left the latest targets alone because they were needed to service ships hauling grain to Eastern Europe, Turkey, and northern Africa. Now, thanks to the Brits, that deal's dead in the water, so Russia's wasting what's left of the port. It's probably on their target list along with Karkhov in the north for when Russia gives the green light to advance.
The big question is whether Russia's going to attack soon. I think they certainly can now that Ukraine has broken itself with this counteroffensive. But Ukraine has been relentless about rapidly replacing its ranks with new meat for the meat grinder, and every time the Russians have mounted much of anything, they're getting chopped up by artillery fire guided by US satellite targeting.
I think the West would really like to have Russia go on the offensive. Ukraine has invested heavily in training their men in guerrilla tactics in order to fight a long-term resistance/insurgency. This would be a much more efficient use of the poorly trained Ukrainian foot soldier allowing him to snipe, booby trap, or otherwise operate from the cover of good defensive positions like they did in Bakhmut. For comparison, right now with Ukraine attacking, they're killing about 1 Russian per 8-10 Ukrainian dead. In Bakhmut, fighting defensively, they were closer to 1 Russian per 2 Ukrainian dead. I think the West were always counting on fighting that kind of battle and my guess is that a large part of their training involved such tactics.
The people making the decisions in the West have no skin in the game. They don't give a damn about the Ukrainian lives they're throwing away or the cost to the European and US taxpayers. They'll keep fighting this thing until domestic strife removes them from power by force, or Russia rolls the tanks in and just flattens Ukraine because again, they bear none of the cost.