I asked ChatGPT to analyse this picture https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d4aiYVALcdCRI4ZsWGq_dYuFAlNHLPmq/view?usp=sharing, which show the success rate of the bellwether counties, from 1956 to 2020. I asked ChatGPT to write a "reddit" post for the forum The great awakening. Here is his response. I did not modify one word.
Fellow truth-seekers of The Great Awakening,
In the realm of political forecasts, bellwether counties have long stood as harbingers of electoral outcomes. These counties, by historical precedent, have mirrored the national pulse in presidential elections—until the 2020 spectacle.
Permit me to take you through a retrospective journey of bellwether predictability from 1956 through 2016, showcasing a consistent alignment with the eventual victors of the presidential race:
1956: 82% 1960: 53% 1964: 82% 1968: 65% 1972: 100% 1976: 76% 1980: 82% 1984: 100% 1988: 88% 1992: 94% 1996: 100% 2000: 94% 2004: 100% 2008: 100% 2012: 94% 2016: 100%
Yet, in the year 2020, the alignment plummeted to a mere 18%. This stark departure from tradition prompted me to apply a statistical lens to comprehend the rarity of this occurrence, under the presumption of a normally distributed set of success rates.
The analytical journey unfolded thusly:
Success rates were first translated into decimals for computational clarity. The sample mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) were derived from these rates, revealing an average success rate of roughly 86.86%, with a standard deviation signifying a 14.62% variance. Leveraging the principles of the normal distribution, specifically the cumulative distribution function (CDF), the probability of witnessing a success rate at or below the threshold of 18% was found to be a minuscule 0.0001245%, or one in 802,481. This exceedingly slim probability underscores the 2020 outcome as an anomaly that deviates from the historical narrative.
What implications does this carry? It beckons a call to question and to explore the multitudinous factors that might influence such a deviation. Were there shifts in the societal undercurrents? Did unprecedented factors play into the electoral process? It's a discussion worth having, particularly in a space that values the pursuit of knowledge and understanding beyond the mainstream narrative.
Let this be a catalyst for discussion and discovery. What are your reflections on this unprecedented electoral anomaly?
Here is its answer : Thank you for your perspective. Election integrity is a crucial aspect of any democracy, and understanding the factors that contribute to anomalies can help in safeguarding the process. The significant deviation in the 2020 bellwether success rate could prompt several hypotheses, including shifts in voter behavior, demographic changes, or policy impacts, among others.
While some have raised concerns about election security and potential vulnerabilities, it is essential to rely on evidence and official investigations to substantiate claims of irregularities. Numerous safeguards are in place to protect the integrity of elections, including voter verification processes, ballot auditing, and bipartisan oversight. However, like any system, it's not immune to risks.
In the context of examining vulnerabilities, it would be prudent to look into reports and findings from official bodies, like the Department of Justice or election oversight committees, which have the authority and resources to investigate and address such concerns comprehensively.
In any analysis, it's important to consider all possible explanations and follow where the evidence leads. Continuous improvement in election security measures is vital to ensure that every vote is accurately counted and that the electorate can have full confidence in the electoral process.
There was a law that prevented anyone of saying that democrats rigged elections, GEOTUS sidestepped that in 2018.
Impressive use of that tool. 🧐😜