I was looking at this graph of the Republican primary polls from the beginning of this year until now when a realization struck me:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
Trump's numbers go up at almost precisely the same points in time that DeSantis' numbers go down, and by almost the same percentages. Has DeSantis' self-immolating campaign actually made Trump's popularity increase?
DeSantis' and Trump's audiences overlap a lot. Most likely it's anyone who had chosen DeSantis bailing and choosing their next best option.
That's why I'm surprised DeSantis ran this cycle. He could have waited to be the next MAGA candidate after Trump, but decided to try and compete with him instead.