Trump will narrowly win the (official) popular vote count and take most swing states including Nevada. He'll significantly overperform in New York and the Northeast in general. Virginia and Maine will be close, along with New Mexico and Minnesota. Trump will win Georgia & North Carolina by 2% or higher and Florida will vote significantly right of Texas. Vermont and Oregon will vote significantly less Democratic than in 2020.

After the election, young men will primary be blamed for Kamala's loss. Suburban women will vote for Kamala in greater numbers than they did for Biden in 2020, but their votes will be offset by low-propensity voters turning out for Trump in droves unexpectedly. Trump will narrowly win Black men under the age of 30 and have a larger lead among Hispanic men in the same age range (about 9%). Trump will win nearly 80% of the under 30 White male vote, and they'll turn out in uncharacteristically large and consistent numbers. The youth vote will be much higher than previous elections and extremely polarized by sex. Cities will vote more Republican than usual and some rural areas will vote more Democratic, mostly fueled by women. This will be considered the first election where social media caused the traditional urban-rural divide to begin to break down.

The Democratic biopsy will be mixed. Some will blame Kamala herself for being a weak candidate who couldn't hold the momentum and define herself as the change candidate going into the election. Some will say her record was too far-left, others will say her campaign moved too far to the center and depressed core turnout. Her Cheney endorsements will be criticized in retrospect. Democrats will have to answer a lot of uncomfortable questions about why young male turnout went so badly for them. It will be a "sad day for democracy" according to the media.

Downballot, Democrats will outperform Kamala. Democrat governors will be re-elected for the most part along with most Senators. They'll narrowly lose the Senate through losses in Montana and Ohio, giving Republicans a 52-person majority. The House is a tossup but I expect it to be close either way.

Overall, I'm not expecting a red wave by any means but I do believe Trump will win in a way that challenges assumptions about demographic reliability. The "young people are liberal" narrative will shift, and Democrats will have to do a lot more to get minority men on board going forward. The coalition that propelled Trump to victory in 2024 will be fragile and other Republicans won't easily replicate it.