YEP .... My wife is an English as a Second Language teacher (ESL). I broke the math down for her easily so she would understand the Factorial thing ... here goes:
It's about "expected outcomes". Lets say you have TWO sequential ballots (just 2), there are 2 possible ways they could arrive - 1 then 2, or 2 then 1. The math to find the number of possible ("outcomes" or "permutations" or "Sequences" - all the same thing) is 2! (Two factorial) or 1 X 2 = 2. To get the percentage, just divide that number by 1: 1/2 = .5 or 50%.
Now lets do 3 ballots: The number of possible 'sequences' or 'outcomes' in which the ballots could arrive is 3! (Three factorial) or 6 ... 1 X 2 X 3 = 6. The possible sequences are 1-2-3; 1-3-2; 2-1-3; 2-3-1; 3-1-2; 3-2-1. Six different ways ('permutations') that 3 different ballots could arrive, so 1/6 = 0.1667 OR 16.67%
Now lets do a bigger number, but not super big ... saaaayyyy 10. SO, 10! (Ten factorial) = 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10 = 3,628,800. That is 3,628,800 different ways that 10 different ballots could show up (I'm not gonna list the possible outcomes - LOL). The percentage is 0.000027557%. FOR Those ballots to arrive in exact perfect order (1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) is ONE in 3,628,800.
Now imagine 950!
FRAUD VITIATES EVERYTHING
YEP .... My wife is an English as a Second Language teacher (ESL). I broke the math down for her easily so she would understand the Factorial thing ... here goes:
It's about "expected outcomes". Lets say you have TWO sequential ballots (just 2), there are 2 possible ways they could arrive - 1 then 2, or 2 then 1. The math to find the number of possible ("outcomes" or "permutations" or "Sequences" - all the same thing) is 2! (Two factorial) or 1 X 2 = 2. To get the percentage, just divide that number by 1: 1/2 = .5 or 50%.
Now lets do 3 ballots: The number of possible 'sequences' or 'outcomes' in which the ballots could arrive is 3! (Three factorial) or 6 ... 1 X 2 X 3 = 6. The possible sequences are 1-2-3; 1-3-2; 2-1-3; 2-3-1; 3-1-2; 3-2-1. Six different ways ('permutations') that 3 different ballots could arrive, so 1/6 = 0.1667 OR 16.67%
Now lets do a bigger number, but not super big ... saaaayyyy 10. SO, 10! (Ten factorial) = 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10 = 3,628,800. That is 3,628,800 different ways that 10 different ballots could show up (I'm not gonna list the possible outcomes - LOL). The percentage is 0.000000027557%. FOR Those ballots to arrive in exact perfect order (1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) is ONE in 3,628,800.
Now imagine 950!
FRAUD VITIATES EVERYTHING