This reads like a classic Prisoner's Delima from Game Theory .... holy crap. You just solved the puzzle of "Datefagging" for me:
There have been no arrests, because much like your scenario outlined, Q team loses if they all continue to be bullied into silence and not squeel on each other ... which has previously been the status quo.
Misinformation induces datefagging, amplified by the foruns .... which shakes them up enough, making some squeel in an attempt to get favorable treatment. No arrests makes others question if a game is afoot, and forces some to demand their "payment" and others to keep committing crimes, while more and more start squeeling. The Q team racks up the indictments as time goes on. Only when they all realize they've all squeeled, do the big ones finally get nailed.
Datefagging therefore prevented a favorable Deep State outcome, and enables the Q Team to play the long game and guarantee to sweep the board if they are patient enough. And explains why the Anons and public Awakening is a critical part of the Plan (scenario 1, long term).
Mirror this to the vaxx paradigm: Misinformation creates "hesitency" .... AND FORCES SCENARIO 3 YOU OUTLINE BELOW. Q may have helped make us ultra suspicious of the vaxx in order to ENSURE A CONTROL GROUP is established to create undeniable evidence of the medical deepstate, enabling Trump to tell the truth. Inversely, if Trump is supplying the misinformation ... I guess this prevents the delima outcome where 5-10 year lockdowns are doable to force the Great Reset.
Or, these variants actually do exist, and are a critical step to opening the public eyes re: big pharma, and draining the pharma swamp. Hmmmm.
(Also: for other interesting hits https://qposts.online/?q=game+theory&s=keyword)