Zeihan covers the British Empire, and Spain and Portugal and a LOT more, pointing out the strengths of each in their time, both in terms of Empire and in terms of the movement towards industrialization (which Britain was the first to really get underway, of course).

His point about America -- one of his points; he is VERY thorough and wide-ranging in his data and analysis -- is that America had (and still has) the ONLY globe-spanning Navy and other military that could guarantee free and safe ocean passage of goods world-wide EDIT: during the past 70 years or so (Zeihan goes into some detail on this). The vast majority of global trade goes, and can ONLY go, by ocean carrier for economic and other reasons. For centuries, theft and destruction by pirates and hostile governments made ocean shipping dangerous enough to prevent anything like today's reliance on overseas suppliers, denying use of the most cost-effective sources and preventing access to some of the highest quality components that could ONLY be made elsewhere. Not to mention preventing anything like today's global RETAIL trade. From the book:

"The supply chains of U.S. auto maker Ford are among the most complex of any firm in existence, tapping more than sixty countries and 1,300 direct suppliers that together have more than 4,400 manufacturing sites."

Today, Ford is -- for the second time in about a year -- sitting on a HUGE pile of F-150s that cannot be finished for lack of computer chips. Here's last year when the pile was 60,000 unfinished vehicles and counting.

And THAT's when things are still basically working normally. The issue of American oversight and of American arm-twisting and carrot-supplying to get nations and regions to trade peacefully with places that are NOT inclined to friendly relations with certain other nations or regions hasn't yet even become an issue.

But it will, Zeihan says, and he makes a good case.

As for China . . . Zeihan details a wide range of reasons why China is more screwed than even I had believed. China will absolutely NOT have the financial, military (esp. naval), demographic, or other strengths needed to "take on the mantle." I do worry that the situation for China is SO bad that they may feel pushed into kinetic war with the US (which has pretty much everything China lacks and covets).

Same for Russia, which is in a much better position than much of the world but not, per Zeihan, anywhere near capable of taking over the job America has been shouldering for the last 70 years or so.

Zeihan covers the British Empire, and Spain and Portugal and a LOT more, pointing out the strengths of each in their time, both in terms of Empire and in terms of the movement towards industrialization (which Britain was the first to really get underway, of course).

His point about America -- one of his points; he is VERY thorough and wide-ranging in his data and analysis -- is that America had (and still has) the ONLY globe-spanning Navy and other military that could guarantee free and safe ocean passage of goods world-wide (Zeihan goes into some detail on this). The vast majority of global trade goes, and can ONLY go, by ocean carrier for economic and other reasons. For centuries, theft and destruction by pirates and hostile governments made ocean shipping dangerous enough to prevent anything like today's reliance on overseas suppliers, denying use of the most cost-effective sources and preventing access to some of the highest quality components that could ONLY be made elsewhere. Not to mention preventing anything like today's global RETAIL trade. From the book:

"The supply chains of U.S. auto maker Ford are among the most complex of any firm in existence, tapping more than sixty countries and 1,300 direct suppliers that together have more than 4,400 manufacturing sites."

Today, Ford is -- for the second time in about a year -- sitting on a HUGE pile of F-150s that cannot be finished for lack of computer chips. Here's last year when the pile was 60,000 unfinished vehicles and counting.

And THAT's when things are still basically working normally. The issue of American oversight and of American arm-twisting and carrot-supplying to get nations and regions to trade peacefully with places that are NOT inclined to friendly relations with certain other nations or regions hasn't yet even become an issue.

But it will, Zeihan says, and he makes a good case.

As for China . . . Zeihan details a wide range of reasons why China is more screwed than even I had believed. China will absolutely NOT have the financial, military (esp. naval), demographic, or other strengths needed to "take on the mantle." I do worry that the situation for China is SO bad that they may feel pushed into kinetic war with the US (which has pretty much everything China lacks and covets).

Same for Russia, which is in a much better position than much of the world but not, per Zeihan, anywhere near capable of taking over the job America has been shouldering for the last 70 years or so.