We've gone bankrupt 3 times and are currently insolvent so its actually a very likely scenario. The most likely. If Trump gets back in, he has talked several times about defaulting. We will have to, eventually, if left on the same course and that's just simple math. Have never heard about obligation to pay us holders as opposed to foreign but in some ways would make sense. But bottom line is, several tranches and a large chunk, maybe the majority, will never get to be repaid. This will crush the bond market. You are right that on the macro scale everyone has to hold USTs, but that is changing. That is the big thing with de-dollarization-- no one has to hold it anymore. So prices will already be trending in that direction. It will have everything to do with people moving away from dollar. Too many dollars for less holders, will skyrocket inflation. For me the big question is how do we right size it? If they do a currency swap and we go to a real dollar, the bonds will still be dollar denominated, just a different dollar and we don't have to default. Imagine the US dollar gaining strength and it costs little, relatively, to retire a large amount of debt, so that's a possibility too.

We've gone bankrupt 3 times and are currently insolvent sovits actually a very likely scenario. The most likely. If Trump gets back in, he has talked several times about defaulting. We will have to, eventually, if left on the same course and that's just simple math. Have never heard about obligation to pay us holders as opposed to foreign but in some ways would make sense. But bottom line is, several tranches and a large chunk, maybe the majority, will never get to be repaid. This will crush the bond market. You are right that on the macro scale everyone has to hold USTs, but that is changing. That is the big thing with de-dollarization-- no one has to hold it anymore. So prices will already be trending in that direction. It will have everything to do with people moving away from dollar. Too many dollars for less holders, will skyrocket inflation. For me the big question is how do we right size it? If they do a currency swap and we go to a real dollar, the bonds will still be dollar denominated, just a different dollar and we don't have to default. Imagine the US dollar gaining strength and it costs little, relatively, to retire a large amount of debt, so that's a possibility too.