I believe the 2nd crash will be when the Reverse Repo is wiped out sometime January-February. The Reverse Repo is what is stopping Treasury Yields from shooting up faster and where the US Treasury is dumping all their debt.
George Gammon thinks there will be a crash by March 11, 2024 when the Federal Reserves Bank Term Lending Program ends (allows banks to borrow with Treasuries as collateral at 100% their initial value and not current market value).
The first crash is uncertain. My guess was end of October-November so it may still happen in November.
There is a
- lag effect from treasuries going under we haven't seen yet
- Japanese Yen going above 150 yen/dollar ending The Carry Trade and pushing them towards sellibg US Treasuries
- Record loans from people across the board
- Record delinquencies happening as well
- unknown factors with the war(s) in the middle east, Ukraine, and possibly China invading Taiwan
- Commercial real estate going bust for big banks
- A govt that has given every indication it intends to spend more.
The first crash i expect is gonna be wall street realizing the market is too risky and getting out. Banks will be selling stocks, gold/silver futures, and crypto to stay afloat (btw highly recommend looking at Cardano, there's more than Bitcoin out there and this one is very promising).
The time periods in speculating for the crash from FinTwit and Youtubers I've followed a few years have gone from "the crash will be a few months from now", to "a month from now", to "next week possibly next weekday".
This last Friday, you could easily argue the only thing keeping the S&P 500 up was the Amazon earnings report which drove the stock up 7%. Everything that wasn't tech (and even most of tech) is floundering or shooting lower.
98% of all gains in the s&p 500 in the last few years have been from the 13 biggest stocks right now. They are all tech and almost all on the AI craze which is centrally around Nvidia GPUs. New tech is also the thing your least likely to buy when your worried about food and having a roof over your head.
Also one other thing to think about: if money in the economy goes to treasury bonds because the treasury bond yields are so high compared to Federal Reserve base rate, there's little to no money in the economy for loans so it causes businesses to fail and the economy to crash. If the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates to be above the Treasury Bond yield, it will also crash the economy. Its a downward spiral all caused by government spending.
I believe the 2nd crash will be when the Reverse Repo is wiped out sometime January-February. The Reverse Repo is what is stopping Treasury Yields from shooting up faster and where the US Treasury is dumping all their debt.
George Gammon thinks there will be a crash by March 11, 2024 when the Federal Reserves Bank Term Lending Program ends (allows banks to borrow with Treasuries as collateral at 100% their initial value and not current market value).
The first crash is uncertain. My guess was end of October-November so it may still happen in November.
There is a
- lag effect from treasuries going under we haven't seen yet
- Japanese Yen going above 150 yen/dollar ending The Carry Trade and pushing them towards sellibg US Treasuries
- Record loans from people across the board
- Record delinquencies happening as well
- unknown factors with the war(s) in the middle east, Ukraine, and possibly China invading Taiwan
- Commercial real estate going bust for big banks
- A govt that has given every indication it intends to spend more.
The first crash i expect is gonna be wall street realizing the market is too risky and getting out. Banks will be selling stocks, gold/silver futures, and crypto to stay afloat (btw highly recommend looking at Cardano, there's more than Bitcoin out there and this one is very promising).
The time periods in speculating for the crash from FinTwit and Youtubers I've followed a few years have gone from "the crash will be a few months from now", to "a month from now", to "next week possibly next weekday".
This last Friday, you could easily argue the only thing keeping the S&P 500 up was the Amazon earnings report which drove the stock up 7%. Everything that wasn't tech (and even most of tech) is floundering or shooting lower.
98% of all gains in the s&p 500 in the last few years have been from the 13 biggest stocks right now. They are all tech and almost all on the AI craze which is centrally around Nvidia GPUs. New tech is also the thing your least likely to buy when your worried about food and having a roof over your head.
Also one other thing to think about: if money in the economy goes to treasury bonds because the treasury bond yields are so high compared to Federal Reserve base rate, there's little to no money in the economy for loans so it causes businesses to fail and the economy to crash. If the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates to be above the Treasury Bond yield, it will also crash the economy. Its a downward spiral.
I believe the 2nd crash will be when the Reverse Repo is wiped out sometime January-February. The Reverse Repo is what is stopping Treasury Yields from shooting up faster and where the US Treasury is dumping all their debt.
George Gammon thinks there will be a crash by March 11, 2024 when the Federal Reserves Bank Term Lending Program ends (allows banks to borrow with Treasuries as collateral at 100% their initial value and not current market value).
The first crash is uncertain. My guess was end of October-November so it may still happen in November.
There is a
- lag effect from treasuries going under we haven't seen yet
- Japanese Yen going above 150 yen/dollar ending The Carry Trade and pushing them towards sellibg US Treasuries
- Record loans from people across the board
- Record delinquencies happening as well
- unknown factors with the war(s) in the middle east, Ukraine, and possibly China invading Taiwan
- Commercial real estate going bust for big banks
- A govt that has given every indication it intends to spend more.
The first crash is gonna be wall street realizing the market is too risky and getting out. Banks will be selling stocks, gold/silver futures, and crypto to stay afloat (btw highly recommend looking at Cardano, there's more than Bitcoin out there and this one is very promising).
The time periods in speculating for the crash from FinTwit and Youtubers I've followed a few years have gone from "the crash will be a few months from now", to "a month from now", to "next week possibly next weekday".
This last Friday, you could easily argue the only thing keeping the S&P 500 up was the Amazon earnings report which drove the stock up 7%. Everything that wasn't tech (and even most of tech) is floundering or shooting lower.
98% of all gains in the s&p 500 in the last few years have been from the 13 biggest stocks right now. They are all tech and almost all on the AI craze which is centrally around Nvidia GPUs. New tech is also the thing your least likely to buy when your worried about food and having a roof over your head.