This frog has been watching the region closely. There's been a lot of big talk but no action, which is a good thing. Lithuania espoused cutting off the rail connection to Kaliningrad and dropped it. All the Baltic States have also backpedaled hard with calls for their own specific military escalation. Will report when and if the regional local news action becomes post worthy.

The precipice you hypothesized of EU seizing control... well that would essentially be Crimea 2.0. The Russians have a Naval port in Kaliningrad, same as they did in Crimea. The RU constitution specifically states for that reason, plus the Russian citizenry there too... that they must and will stop annexation of the Federation and it's protect it's people's.

We all know these people are stupid, but even the local neighboring populations know this intimately. They will not risk their own territory and populations for the sake of seizing what is essentially a small tourist, shipping, and military hub. It would be like another country attempting to attack and seize Norfolk + Colonial Williamsburg in terms of size and scope.

This frog has been watching the region closely. There's been a lot of big talk but no action, which is a good thing. Lithuania espoused cutting off the rail connection to Kaliningrad and dropped it. All the Baltic States have also backpedaled hard with calls for their own specific military escalation. Will report when and if the regional local news action becomes post worthy.