Extreme Precision Required An AR-15 at 150 meters (164 yards) can achieve 1-2 MOA (Minute of Angle) accuracy in ideal conditions. This translates to about 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inch) groupings at 100 meters (109 yards), or 3.8-7.6 cm (1.5-3 inch) groupings at our distance of 150 meters (164 yards). A human ear is roughly 6-7 cm (2.4-2.8 inches) tall and 3-4 cm (1.2-1.6 inches) wide. Deliberately hitting just the ear would require inhuman precision.

Uncontrollable Variables Wind, minute shooter movements, and target motion can easily cause several centimeters (inches) of deviation at this distance. These factors make deliberate "near misses" extremely risky.

Unrealistic Risk If this were staged, the risk of serious injury or death would be unacceptably high. No reasonable person would agree to such a dangerous stunt.

Unnecessary Complexity A staged event would likely opt for a much more controllable scenario. The complexity and danger of a long-distance shot make no sense for a fake attempt.

Consistent with Real Attempt The outcome (grazing the ear) is much more consistent with a genuine attempt where the shooter missed their intended target (likely the head or torso) due to the difficulties of the shot.

Shooter's Background Reports indicate the shooter had no known connection to Trump's security or staff, making a coordinated fake attempt highly implausible.

Extreme Precision Required An AR-15 at 150 meters (164 yards) can achieve 1-2 MOA (Minute of Angle) accuracy in ideal conditions. This translates to about 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inch) groupings at 100 meters (109 yards), or 3.8-7.6 cm (1.5-3 inch) groupings at our distance of 150 meters (164 yards). A human ear is roughly 6-7 cm (2.4-2.8 inches) tall and 3-4 cm (1.2-1.6 inches) wide. Deliberately hitting just the ear would require inhuman precision.

Uncontrollable Variables Wind, minute shooter movements, and target motion can easily cause several centimeters (inches) of deviation at this distance. These factors make deliberate "near misses" extremely risky.

Unrealistic Risk If this were staged, the risk of serious injury or death would be unacceptably high. No reasonable person would agree to such a dangerous stunt.

Unnecessary Complexity A staged event would likely opt for a much more controllable scenario. The complexity and danger of a long-distance shot make no sense for a fake attempt.

Consistent with Real Attempt The outcome (grazing the ear) is much more consistent with a genuine attempt where the shooter missed their intended target (likely the head or torso) due to the difficulties of the shot.

Shooter's Background Reports indicate the shooter had no known connection to Trump's security or staff, making a coordinated fake attempt highly implausible.

Extreme Precision Required An AR-15 at 150 meters can achieve 1-2 MOA (Minute of Angle) accuracy in ideal conditions. This translates to about 2.5-5 cm groupings. A human ear is roughly 6-7 cm tall and 3-4 cm wide. Deliberately hitting just the ear would require inhuman precision.

Uncontrollable Variables Wind, minute shooter movements, and target motion can easily cause several centimeters of deviation at this distance. These factors make deliberate "near misses" extremely risky.

Unrealistic Risk If this were staged, the risk of serious injury or death would be unacceptably high. No reasonable person would agree to such a dangerous stunt.

Unnecessary Complexity A staged event would likely opt for a much more controllable scenario. The complexity and danger of a long-distance shot make no sense for a fake attempt.

Consistent with Real Attempt The outcome (grazing the ear) is much more consistent with a genuine attempt where the shooter missed their intended target (likely the head or torso) due to the difficulties of the shot.

Shooter's Background Reports indicate the shooter had no known connection to Trump's security or staff, making a coordinated fake attempt highly implausible.