The ACTUAL shortages won't be seen, felt, realized, until SHORTLY after the 2022 summer grain harvest due to cascading factors. It's Economics, and if you didn't know, Economics is a SLOW BURN (things happen slowly over time):

1. The fuel and fertilizer costs are becoming prohibitively high for damn near all farmers, big and small. IMHO ... Fertilizer producers are likely going to scale back production. They have actuaries that chart out the likely outcomes given actions taken (input - output forecasting). Fertilizer application is one of those things farmers can control in order to cut some of their operating costs. If they determine demand for fertilizer will decrease (which it is), they will scale back production. If order to cut their reduced demand losses, they will have to eat it, or raise prices. Guess which one they are gonna choose. Either way, less nitrogen, less yield. Simple Econ.
2. A shit load of farmers operate on a credit basis. They borrow now to plant now, late summer to harvest, repay in the fall/winter when their commodities are gone to market. This is a multi-dilema issue ... FARMERS may choose NOT to risk paying the high fuel and fertilizer costs now BECAUSE, if commodity prices drop, they are completely fucked. Their margins are so thin as it is, that would crush most of them - They could literally 'sit this one out', or produce a less capital intensive crop. BANKS know this ... they will likely require massive collateral that most farmers don't have, insurance on the crops in the form of futures contracts, and ... Oh by the way, rates are going up. They face just as much risk. If the aforementioned happens, They are just as fucked. It's all good and well to repo a farm and their equipment to sell off in order to recover most of the losses, but who will they sell too? It's not like the Combine Tractor market is booming.
3. Commercial Meat production is cereal grain intensive. If commercial grain stores are not replenished enough to supply all of their markets, the price of that shit is going to skyrocket. Highest bidder type shit. Either the cows and chickens get fed, or there ain't no cows and chickens. The ones that DO make it to market are gonna be unthinkably expensive. Guess what ... either pay it, or don't eat eggs, chicken, beef, cheese ... yeah, all that stuff.

I'm not a doomer ... I'm a realist. This is not speculation. It's simple Econ, math, and science.

The ACTUAL shortages won't be seen, felt, realized, until SHORTLY after the 2022 summer grain harvest due to cascading factors. It's Economics, and if you didn't know, Economics is a SLOW BURN (things happen slowly over time):

1. The fuel and fertilizer costs are becoming prohibitively high for damn near all farmers, big and small. IMHO ... Fertilizer producers are likely going to scale back production. They have actuaries that chart out the likely outcomes given actions taken (input - output forecasting). Fertilizer application is one of those things farmers can control in order to cut some of their operating costs. If they determine demand for fertilizer will decrease (which it is), they will scale back production. If order to cut their reduced demand losses, they will have to eat it, or raise prices. Guess which one they are gonna choose. Either way, less nitrogen, less yield. Simple Econ.
2. A shit load of farmers operate on a credit basis. They borrow now to plant now, late summer to harvest, repay in the fall/winter when their commodities are gone to market. This is a multi-dilema issue ... FARMERS may choose NOT to risk paying the high fuel and fertilizer costs now BECAUSE, if commodity prices drop, they are completely fucked. Their margins are so thin as it is, that would crush most of them - They could literally 'sit this one out', or produce a less capital intensive crop. BANKS know this ... they will likely require massive collateral that most farmers don't have, insurance on the crops in the form of futures contracts, and ... Oh by the way, rates are going up. They face just as much risk. If the aforementioned happens, They are just as fucked. It's all good and well to repo a farm and their equipment to sell off in order to recover most of the losses, but who will they sell too? It's not like the Combine Tractor market is booming.
3. Commercial Meat production is cereal grain intensive. If commercial grain stores are not replenished enough to supply all of their markets, the price of that shit is going to skyrocket. Highest bidder type shit. Either the cows and chickens get fed, or there ain't no cows and chickens. The ones that DO make it to market are gonna be unthinkably expensive. Guess what ... either pay it, or don't each eggs, chicken, beef, cheese ... yeah, all that stuff.

I'm not a doomer ... I'm a realist. This is not speculation. It's simple Econ, math, and science.