Two data points so far:

1. Similar timeline https://greatawakening.win/p/16aTVIqBwV/2008-financial-crisis-timeline-r/

2. Similar $620B in paper losses (as of 12/31/22) compared to reported $700B from 2008: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-banks-that-are-sitting-on-huge-potential-securities-lossesas-was-svb-c4bbcafa

I believe the actual number is likely closer to $1T right now, and they probably low-balled the number in 2008 [reportedly it was assuming a 5% of all mortgage back securities (MBS) default]t

Losses become real in the cases of forced sale and/or mark-to-market accounting. In the case of SVB they had to do a forced sale of longterm Treasuries that had taken a bath to fund short term capital requirements. After they did this their stock tanked, making it impossible to raise capital with share sale without massive dilution. If the stock price craters enough, a capital raise via equity sale becomes very painful to existing shareholders.

The same longterm investment vs short-term cash needs mismatch caused the 2008 meltdown. ROOT CAUSE is inverted yield curve created by Federal Reserve raising interest rates and cratering economy.

Two data points so far:

1. Similar timeline https://greatawakening.win/p/16aTVIqBwV/2008-financial-crisis-timeline-r/

2. Similar $620B in paper losses (as of 12/31/22) compared to reported $700B from 2008: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-banks-that-are-sitting-on-huge-potential-securities-lossesas-was-svb-c4bbcafa

I believe the actual number is likely closer to $1T right now, and they probably low-balled the number in 2008 [reportedly it was assuming a 5% of all mortgage back securities (MBS) default]t

Losses become real in the cases of forced sale and/or mark-to-market accounting. In the case of SVB they had to do a forced sale of longterm Treasuries that had taken a bath to fund short term capital requirements. Same term mismatch that caused the 2008 meltdown.