It tend to agree with your assessment.
I take into account that the Wagner forces were replaced by the Chechen Ahmad, that among the Prigozhin Wagner people are ex-cons. And window dressing is a real thing to play a number on the opponent, i.e. NATO/CIA/ mercenary army:ISIS.
Wait and see.
added: Interesting perspective from Belarus: Military Summary.
Basically, Prigoshin did not had his contract renewed since May 23. Ukro is busy with a massive mobilization. Advantage to the current situation regarding Putin: He can declare Martial Law.
It may simply be a political stunt, or an issue that puts to much power in the hands of the Russian Army leadership, as they have their own personal army, 100.000 men.
It tend to agree with your assessment.
I take into account that the Wagner forces were replaced by the Chechen Ahmad, that among the Prigozhin Wagner people are ex-cons. And window dressing is a real thing to play a number on the opponent, i.e. NATO/CIA/ mercenary army:ISIS.
Wait and see.