Wow, this is a very thorough ecological study. Stats fans will appreciate the efforts and cross checks and lack of agenda. It's very encouraging that Nature journal put this out. The American counterpart, Science, has been too busy all year with their new social consciousness program.

tldr, the effects of staying at home are very minimal in reducing spread. Peru had the most severe lockdown and worst spread. Lack of lockdown wasn't the reason for Sweden's deaths. I think this article is way too technical for regular redpilling, but it is a goldmine of references.