Market Crash is inevitable
(media.greatawakening.win)
You're viewing a single comment thread. View all comments, or full comment thread.
Comments (52)
sorted by:
OK ... so aside from being an incorrigible conspiracy theory Q guy (my friends words not mine), I've been a Market Trader for 35 years. I watch the shit most others don't watch. One that is easy for everyone is the premium imbalance between puts and calls against the Index options.
Barny Version: Say the S&P 500 closes at 4000. You take the closest 4 strikes on both sides IN THE MONEY. you then calculate the ABSOLUTE (in the money) value and premium for each spread. Compare the residuals (what is left) on both sides of the close for each spread. Puts for strikes ABOVE THE CLOSE. Calls for strikes BELOW THE CLOSE. Compare the difference. This tells you how much MORE expensive one side is than the other. If the 'PREMIUM' as I call it gets WAY out of balance 100% of the time the market takes a SHARP decline in that direction.
EXAMPLE: The market closes at 4000. The 4005 put (right to SELL the market at 4005) is selling for $20, the absolute value is $5 (4005-4000), the Premium is $15 (20-5). If the Call 3995 is $17 (the right to BUY the market at 3995) the absolute value is again 5 (4000-3995), but the premium is 12 (17-5). The market makers are charging a lot more for the right to sell the market than to buy the market.
Use that and spot check it against a few DOW stocks that close pretty close to 'even split' - for easy math.
This market we are in is MASSIVLY overbought and I believe has been 100% artificially inflated by the fed. I am begging everyone I know to hedge their stonks by buying long long term put options on ANY stock with a low BETA and that is close to their 52 week high. Don't worry about the Beta ... when markets collapse, all stocks move damn near to the market beta. By doing it this way (low beta), you don't pay NEAR as much for the 'premiums' on your options .. stonks that have low volatility have much 'cheaper' options.
ALSO, look at the SP500 chart on a 20yr. We are in a bubble. No two fucking ways about it Frens. It's overt.
Disclaimer for the assholes out there: I'm not a financial adviser-Just a market junky. This is not advice. This is my 'opinion'. Do your own Due diligence.
Wow this is not the barney version. Admittedly I'm a market ignoramus, but this is good stuff. Still above my head. Trying to decide if I should just cash mine out.
FUCK. I was hoping the thread was going to be filled with knowledgeable anon content and interesting discussion. We got Jesuits, stolen Vatican Gold, and GME apes.
Thread fail
Only play is GME sitting nicely with a negative beta of -1.8 according to Yahoo. Bloom terminal has much higher with adjusted beta of -23. Hedge with GME when the market crashes and buy up all the stocks while they're on discount. I'm not a financial advisor, I just like the stock.
OK ... so, Beta is the relative sensitivity a stock has to the movement of the aggregate market. GME cannot be classified as a stock. It's a lottery ticket. Make no mistake ... I hope every GME gamer makes a million dollars. I truly mean that. That would be fucking awesome. Jam a massive night-stick up the hedgefunds asses. That said, GME beta literally means diddly squat.