Some guy accused another guy of butting in line and cutting him off. Someone else was cussing out a Karen for filling four 5-gal cans in the back of her SUV. People have panic in their eyes. After COVID and everything else going on, people have lost patience. These are the early catalysts. Once hyperinflation and shortages really start to kick in, it's going to get rough.
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Fragmenting into small communities means we'll just get gobbled up by bigger powers like China, Cuba, EU, or even the drug cartels carving out medieval fiefdoms for themselves.
State militias cannot field the armaments that a national army can. There will be no heavy artillery (at least not in large numbers), no large armies in the hundreds of thousands, no air support, very little mechanized infantry or tanks, and certainly no nuclear weapons unless you're north dakota.
I'm all for localization and minimizing supply chain issues but the effect it would have on national defense would be catastrophic. Think Fall of the Western Roman Empire every-man for himself. When the hordes of Germans and Goths came they just demolished the national Roman Army and steam-rolled over the small towns and cities. It would be the same thing. United we stand, divided we fall.