"Who becomes seriously ill in a resurgence?
55. Figure 11 illustrates the age and vaccination status of those hospitalised (left) and dying
(rig t) over time in Warwi ’s entral s enario for t e w ole Roadmap (equivalent to igure
4). The top plots are absolute numbers and the bottom plots are as a proportion of those
admitted or dying.
This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in
people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection
waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines. This is because vaccine uptake
has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds).
There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x
10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected
against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake
being so high."
From the document:
"Who becomes seriously ill in a resurgence? 55. Figure 11 illustrates the age and vaccination status of those hospitalised (left) and dying (rig t) over time in Warwi ’s entral s enario for t e w ole Roadmap (equivalent to igure 4). The top plots are absolute numbers and the bottom plots are as a proportion of those admitted or dying.
Got to love the last line disclaimer.