Went to Lowes today and like every other 9 out of 10 trips I leave pissed off without what I went for, today it was the cause of a "coin shortage" . I go to pay for my items and the clerk tells me there is a coin shortage therefore I can either round up my total or use a card, I immediately asked for a manager .... Manager comes over to explain to me there is a "coin shortage" again I may either round up my total if paying cash or use a card, I explained to her I am in business and deal with a few different banks and there is no coin shortage that I have seen, she goes on to tell me their coin supplier is Loomis and there is a shortage with them, I asked if so, why should their prob cost me $$$, she asked how ..if loomis is playing games with the system and Lowes is either in on the game playing with loomis which I am sure is backed by the fed or simply too lazy to find a different coin supplier or send a manager to a bank, then it is their problem. Why would you round my total up and not down ???? You are providing a lower level of service to me. She said that is how it is I am sorry what else may I do to help you today. I said you can put this stuff back on the shelf I am DONE shopping here. does anyone have any evidence of loomis being instructed to play games with coin circulation with box box retailers ?? This coin shortage is such bullshit
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The reverse repo market tells you a lot about what’s going on. This is banks returning cash to the fed in return for T bills. In a healthy, expanding scenario the reverse would be true; banks would be borrowing from the feds to make loans. But in this case they are all running away from retail loans. WF just announced no more personal loans or lines of consumer credit would be issued. Why would they do this? 2 possible reasons; (1) they fear a massive recession in which people would default on the loans OR (2) they are expecting massive inflation which would make the time value of money far greater in the present (you would be paying them back at a later date with money of less value.
The problem I see is that when banks stop issuing loans the and money in circulation starts to drop it theoretically should drive deflation, not inflation as you have less dollars chasing the same amount of goods. Here’s the kicker though, have y’all gotten the Biden stimulus letter/child tax credits that started in July? How about the home owner stimulus plan about to be unleashed by Biden? These are fiscal stimulus attempts to continue to increase the money supply because the banks are no longer willing to take on the risk and do so. The effects will be the same - inflation and the banks know this. After all, inflation is nothing more than a massive tax on the low-middle class earners without actually ‘raising their taxes’. For low earners these effects are devastating as all available funds are already spent on daily necessities. For middle class it consumes all of their available flex money. For the rich it barely registers as a speed bump.
That’s my take on what’s going on.