You're the expert here but I'm pretty skeptical any attack would happen classically like that.
In WW1, Germany thought the best way to win would be to go all out immediately. They did, but lacked the capability to mobilize to the extent required to end it quickly.
In WW2, same thing, again same issue.
Consider the destructive capability we have now combined with the intelligence, accuracy, and range. If China is serious and actually engaged in a war of force, I expect thousands of simultaneous strikes to destroy any ability for Taiwan to survive without outside assistance followed by a blockade until they capitulate. These "meat grinder" cities just wouldn't happen, Stalingrad happened because Hitler thought if he took it Russia would collapse, China would have no need for any such invasion. Besides that, China probably would take how America did in the Pacific in WW2 into account and just bomb the shit outta Taiwan.
Really the main challenge for China in a physical war is forces outside Taiwan itself, otherwise it just comes down to cost. As it is I think China wants a Taiwan with an intact infrastructure. Probably China will just continue with their current information and economic war as it's working pretty well, but if China ever does attack it will be a blitzkrieg up till then unimagined. So anyways I agree China probably won't attack but for different reasons.
You're 100% right to question it, but the ultimate answer ends up being "what else can they do?"
The thing is, we have immense destructive ability, sure, but that really only has effect on significantly weaker or technologically behind nations. Taiwan is well equipped to counter any delivery China would send; the PATRIOT missile system is designed to defend against both aircraft and missiles, so long-range missile strikes, bombing runs, and cruise missiles would be only marginally effective at best. Combined with whatever sorts of CIWS guns they almost certainly have and ordinance would dramatically lose effectiveness. At the most, long range ordinance operations would become an eye for an eye.
The PLA also has to contend with their propaganda. They've been saying they'll take Taiwan quickly and easily for decades, yet a blockade or a nuke/equivalent would be far from that goal. They need reintegration, not obliteration. Anything short of that and it will be a net propaganda loss for them. You yourself pointed out that.
The thing is, the PLA just hasn't shown the macho or the coordination to pull off effective military operations against opponents with military parody. Their border skirmishes with India were pathetic given the equipment superiority they had in the area. Before that they "won" [most nations say they lost, given they failed their primary objectives a war with Vietnam.
As much as war changes, it really winds up repeating itself. The technology gets more advanced, yet the tactics and overall aims remain the same, which is why we can still use the Art of War thousands of years after its inception.
The best bet China would have at avoiding hundreds of Stalingrads in their invasion would be to have operatives sabotage critical defense facilities simultaneously; something that Taiwan probably knows and works overtime to protect against. And even then, they simply cannot mobilize troops and navy that fast to make that sabotage count.
That leaves two options: no war at all, or attempted subterfuge as they've done in every other nation they bend the knee of. The latter will be astronomically harder on Taiwan, given they would expect that and have tremendous resistance to such a thing.
I think a war with Taiwan should be acknowledged as a last ditch effort of a collapsing CCP. It is such a likely suicidal plan that the CCP would only be executing it if they felt they were going to die within a month to internal uprisings.
You're the expert here but I'm pretty skeptical any attack would happen classically like that.
In WW1, Germany thought the best way to win would be to go all out immediately. They did, but lacked the capability to mobilize to the extent required to end it quickly.
In WW2, same thing, again same issue.
Consider the destructive capability we have now combined with the intelligence, accuracy, and range. If China is serious and actually engaged in a war of force, I expect thousands of simultaneous strikes to destroy any ability for Taiwan to survive without outside assistance followed by a blockade until they capitulate. These "meat grinder" cities just wouldn't happen, Stalingrad happened because Hitler thought if he took it Russia would collapse, China would have no need for any such invasion. Besides that, China probably would take how America did in the Pacific in WW2 into account and just bomb the shit outta Taiwan.
Really the main challenge for China in a physical war is forces outside Taiwan itself, otherwise it just comes down to cost. As it is I think China wants a Taiwan with an intact infrastructure. Probably China will just continue with their current information and economic war as it's working pretty well, but if China ever does attack it will be a blitzkrieg up till then unimagined. So anyways I agree China probably won't attack but for different reasons.
You're 100% right to question it, but the ultimate answer ends up being "what else can they do?"
The thing is, we have immense destructive ability, sure, but that really only has effect on significantly weaker or technologically behind nations. Taiwan is well equipped to counter any delivery China would send; the PATRIOT missile system is designed to defend against both aircraft and missiles, so long-range missile strikes, bombing runs, and cruise missiles would be only marginally effective at best. Combined with whatever sorts of CIWS guns they almost certainly have and ordinance would dramatically lose effectiveness. At the most, long range ordinance operations would become an eye for an eye.
The PLA also has to contend with their propaganda. They've been saying they'll take Taiwan quickly and easily for decades, yet a blockade or a nuke/equivalent would be far from that goal. They need reintegration, not obliteration. Anything short of that and it will be a net propaganda loss for them. You yourself pointed out that.
The thing is, the PLA just hasn't shown the macho or the coordination to pull off effective military operations against opponents with military parody. Their border skirmishes with India were pathetic given the equipment superiority they had in the area. Before that they "won" [most nations say they lost, given they failed their primary objectives a war with Vietnam.
As much as war changes, it really winds up repeating itself. The technology gets more advanced, yet the tactics and overall aims remain the same, which is why we can still use the Art of War thousands of years after its inception.
The best bet China would have at avoiding hundreds of Stalingrads in their invasion would be to have operatives sabotage critical defense facilities simultaneously; something that Taiwan probably knows and works overtime to protect against. And even then, they simply cannot mobilize troops and navy that fast to make that sabotage count.
That leaves two options: no war at all, or attempted subterfuge as they've done in every other nation they bend the knee of. The latter will be astronomically harder on Taiwan, given they would expect that and have tremendous resistance to such a thing.
I think a war with Taiwan should be acknowledged as a last ditch effort of a collapsing CCP. It is such a likely suicidal plan that the CCP would only be executing it if they felt they were going to die within a month to internal uprisings.