Here's the logic of how I came to that conclusion:

• Q mentioned in a post in 2018 about looking back 2 years and forward 6 (ending 2024)

• We are watching a movie / What makes a movie good? (A: good actors, good story... a good story is what I considered)

• How does what we have seen fit in terms of a "good story"?

First, if we are in year 6 of 8 (or year 2 of 4 of the movie starting publicly), that puts us somewhere just after the halfway point.

Personally, I like the classic 3 act story structure (Side note; This led to arguments with my wife about Harry Potter because a good story would mean that Harry HAD to die at the end with how intertwined he is with Voldemort).

Anyway, the key points in act one are where the main character has an incident that leads them towards the plot and the point of no return where they decide that the challenge must be tackled. Act 2 is the escalation of action and obstacles that lead to an 'all is lost' perception and the midpoint represents 'a big twist' that shows a route towards resolution. Act 3 is where the climax of the action occurs and is where the hero ultimately overcomes the challenge.

This puts us clearly in Act 2, I would propose the trucker convoys took (Canada at least) from an "all is lost" perception and made for a big twist), but an argument could be made that Russia attacking Ukraine has the same effect. But that also holds true where there are multiple main character arcs, in which case each would have their own story arcs that roughly coincide with the main story arc.

tldr; From multiple perspectives we have only really seen elements that seem positive but have failed, but we have seen a number of big twists that change the game for the positive. Normies still don't really get who the good guys or bad guys really are yet.