I've served in Taiwan for years as a missionary and I see a lot of current posts, if you'd like to know more about the country from an actual local. Drop a question! I can't promise I'll answer quickly as our timezone is very different but I'd like to clarify things as it's important to be accurate with Taiwan!
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I have heard that the Taiwanese people are wary of US support and feel we would throw them to the wolves. I know they used to lobby US heavily for arms sales back in the 1980s
Also economic ties with a much bigger China are such that do you feel Taiwan feels it’s a matter of time before they are assimilated?
This is absolutely a real concern. I have a good friend who hated Trump for no reason other than media (They don't realize CNN is false here. Or at least didn't) but something shifted around 2020. I think many Taiwanese started to see a political shift once the BLM riots occurred. My friends literally couldn't believe that they weren't being stopped. So many of them started doing research and I found that same friend actually fasted with his friend 7 DAYS during the election for Trump to win. They went from distrust to not eating for days! Wild.
What I've seen is basically Taiwan feels the only reason America would back them or help them is to get something out of it (Like strategic access/defense from China). And to be fair watching the situation in Afghanistan shook a lot of them up. Some of them really don't think it'd be possible for the US to have "Moral" reasons for defending Taiwan.
I would argue that under the Trump admin there was growing hope of support from the US but this admin has made people a lot more skeptical. But in my opinion, discarding US support in a hot war (Which is all but likely guaranteed due to our allies Japan and South Korea), the reagion here has a lot of interest outside of just China.
Most nations don't have a good reason to trust or ally with China so in the event of a hot war I would expect countries like India, SK, Japan, Phillipines to have a lot of skin in the game meaning the conflict would likely be a world war but also not as simple as China just showing up over here.
Your last question hits the nail on the head. It's more likely economic or political assimilation would be the only way forward. I do a ton of research on this but long story short, most pathways to invasion are wildly unsuccessful for China at this point so if they were intelligent they would fund massive amounts of propoganda. Hire politicians. Try to infiltrate. The problem though is what they did to Hong Kong was so severe that it really set relationships back and I find many of my friends went from "neutral/status quo" to "We need to think of ourselves differently and secure ourselves against the threat of China."
In my opinion assimilation is the biggest risk but it's getting less and less likely as Taiwan starts to step up on the world stage and grapple with their own identity. And it's challenging, Taiwanese really have struggled with knowing what type of ethnic and cultural people they are due to the long history of colonization, conquering, aboriginal groups, and ethnic Chinese groups mingling the last 400 years.
Thank you for the response. Interesting about Response to riots. Taiwan like many Asian societies has a fear of disorder.
The complex geopolitics is very interesting. I feel that in the US we never really understand the conflicts we are involved in. When I grew up it was PROC VS ROC. Now it is CCP a political party vs Taiwan an island now also an aspiring nation.
Taiwan question is similar to me the question of how small a group of people can self determine and why do other countries decide?
Hong Kong was a wake up call for me in this question although looking at history most conflicts center around this. Now maybe oil or resources drive the cabal to foment conflict.
So Hong Kong handed over to China like a child bride? Or return of a kidnapped child? Did anyone really ask the people of Hong Kong?
If China is trying to win a 3 generation war they already have won Taiwan since they are one generation in and the west has ceded to CCP the concept of “one China”
Are the Taiwanese excited about Nancy Pelosis visit?