You're right, the numbers aren't going to change because some people think Oz will win, they're going to change because some people WANT Oz to win. Hence they're going to manufacture whatever circumstances are needed to get the numbers reported to line up with what they want them to say rather than what most people really think. AKA They're going to try to manipulate public opinion using manufactured polls instead of using honest polls to report it. And if they don't do it with Oz specifically, it's because they're too busy doing it in dozens of other races across the country and couldn't get around to him.