Original question: I have heard rumors of recently discharged and retired being called back to service as well as Stop Loss increases.

Any truth to that?

Answer: You are not wrong.

The issue is what I call “cavitation” and we are seeing it on all fronts because of several root causes:

Vax purge - this has snowballed into a stain on the service.  When they are cutting some of their top people, it leaves an unplanned gap. What you do not see is the number of service members who silently walked away, retired early, or just chose to not re-enlist.  This number includes a lot of vaccinated troops who see the treatment their buddies got and are hanging it up.  Also consider the loss of family and friends from back home.  The military is a family affair for many and those that are being purged are taking their extended family with them. A statistical analysis of the officers that have been “let go” over the vax have overwhelmingly (over 75%) been rated in the top 10% of their peer group in terms of performance.  These are not the bottom dwellers that needed to go.

Loser Generals - The loss in Afghanistan has been worse for our military’s morale than Vietnam.  No one wants to sign up to work for the losing team.  It has also been made clear that the leadership is incompetent and does not care if they take some losses - reference Stu Scheller’s point about holding leadership accountable for failure.  He was absolutely right.  Most service members put up with a lot because they believe in their leadership and want to follow them.  That is out the window.

Recruiting - the above two points are having a major impact on the ability to bring in new recruits. Additionally, the military’s commitment to politicization and “going woke” has turned off many from population groups that were once considered “most likely to serve”.  The stats are real, Texas recruiting districts have missed their mission for the past 6 months, and the Army recruited 40 individuals the month of April.  Again, no one wants to sign up for the losing team.

Supply chain issues - these affect everyone, and we are seeing it happen across society.  When you have supply disruptions coupled with personnel shortfalls as listed above, maintenance starts to atrophy and you run behind on scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.  Lance Corporal wrench turner who you kicked out will not be replaced for 9 months, and he is back at his Uncles shop rebuilding engines while you may get a diversity is our strength hire and she has never touched a Diesel engine.

Economy - The not recession and hyper inflation we are seeing is doing a number on military recruiting and retention.  When more than 50% of your force is below the poverty line and on food stamps there is a problem.  Put simply the pay, which was never that great, is not getting military members as far in this economy.  This is also an issue due to the military’s focus over the past 20 years on increased standards, demanding higher grades, no tattoos, etc. that has put them in direct competition with corporate and collegiate recruiting efforts.  Not a bad thing in and of itself but the traditional “carrots” that brought kids to the recruiters door are simply not there.  Even McDonalds offers a college tuition payment plan.

Put all this together and you have a toxic combination of realities and decisions that are causing a sever atrophy of military readiness.  And the reality is the military cannot meet its manning requirements established by law.  The alternatives left are stop loss, recall, and other bad choices that will only further antagonize the loss of trust in leadership.

And before you say just bring back the unvaxxed, every one of them have been discharged with a misconduct statement on their DD-214.  They are not coming back without significant efforts.

To the original question, the root causes I describe are what is driving the decision towards recalls and stop losses. There are only so many tools to correct manpower loss and recalls (which they will heavily incentivize for voluntary before they get into the involuntary variety) are something that are on the table. Stop loss is another - and given the current deteriorating global security situation, will likely be seen soon, especially in high demand communities.

I have heard whispers of it being discussed. Look for more reserve mobilizations before it gets to that, but understand that it has always been a tool that has been discussed and considered well before the current situation we are in.

Also, it is worth pointing out that these are politically charged decisions that carry a lot of repercussions and long term risk with them, which is why they are rarely talked about or used. But this is the result of the reckless leadership over the past 2 decades and especially the past 2 years that has gotten us to this point.

• an Ex Marine