And, what will cause it? (Vax deaths, dollar crash, food shortage, civil war, world war, martial law declared, energy shortage, pandemic, etc)
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Yes, but the key is: are they aimed directly at Earth? Glancing blows aren't as big a deal.
We are due for a direct hit by an X-class flare, based on data that suggests a Carrington-level event occurs approximately every 150 years. The Carrington event fried the telegraph lines... another one will destroy our electric way of life. We will be blasted back to the stone-age for at least a decade. This is what OP asked about/needs to know.
We are also due for the 6,000 year event (possibly a micronova?) sometime in the next 20-40 years according to several scientists/observers. This will be something akin to a "Noah Event", likely including a crustal-shift.