Read Cates back when he was on Quod Verum, he's methodical in his analysis and I usually find it plausible. But... he's missed the mark on many things as far as timetable. He works from OSINT and maybe some insider info then pulls the threads together from that. But what if one of the threads he's built his hypothesis on is fake, intentionally put out to lead deep divers to the wrong conclusion(s)? Have wondered that about Wictor too, the first one to get deep on Devolution. There may have been just one block in the signal chain that was wrong (or just enough wrong) and there only to derail the autists that were onto something and hurt their credibility. We're talking spooks after all. Just a theory, I have a bunch of them, one or two might be right.