There are 20 holdouts now and for McCarthy to win, he would need to hold his present 202 and pick up 16 more. Considering who the holdouts are, that is not likely to happen. McCarthy will be made to see the light before tomorrow and either Jordon or Scalise will be nominated and elected by 222 votes.
I could be wrong, but I believe the requirement is a majority of members eligible to vote. Even if democrats boycott or vote present they would still be considered eligible to vote. In any event we will see tomorrow.
There are 20 holdouts now and for McCarthy to win, he would need to hold his present 202 and pick up 16 more. Considering who the holdouts are, that is not likely to happen. McCarthy will be made to see the light before tomorrow and either Jordon or Scalise will be nominated and elected by 222 votes.
One element you're ignoring: The numbers change if some Democrats don't show up tomorrow. McCarthy won't need 218 to reach a majority.
I could be wrong, but I believe the requirement is a majority of members eligible to vote. Even if democrats boycott or vote present they would still be considered eligible to vote. In any event we will see tomorrow.