First, here are the two posts claiming the 5% figure:
https://greatawakening.win/p/16a9v4XS1j/5-of-covid-vax-lot-s-are-respons/c/
https://greatawakening.win/p/16a9v3RWc8/whats-in-your-wallet/c/
and two good links that I gleaned from the comments:
https://knollfrank.github.io/HowBadIsMyBatch/batchCodeTable.html
Now, assuming this 5% figure is true and that the bad batches were randomly distributed worldwide, here is the probability distribution that a person who took both clot shots and all boosters on the time scale propagandized by the government and the mockingbird media of getting a poisonous shot.
The formula for the probability distribution of 2 events is: nCrp^rq^(n-r) where n is the number of vaccine doses taken, r is the number that is poisonous, p is the probability that the batch is not poisonous which would be .95 and q is the probability that the batch is poisonous which would be .05. For those of you who are not math literate, the C is the formula for combinations.
So a person who had only one shot, the probability is nonpoisonous: 95%, poisonous 5%
From here on out, all calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
A person who had two shots, the probabilities are: both nonpoisonous: 90%, 1 poisonous: 10%, both poisonous 0% (actually 0.25%)
A person who had three shots, the probabilities are: all nonpoisonous: 86%, 1 poisonous: 14%, 2 poisonous: 1%, all 3 poisonous: 0% (actually 1/80th of a %) The reason why the total is above 100% is due to rounding error.
A person who had 4 shots, the probabilities are: all nonpoisonous: 81%, 1 poisonous: 17%, 2 poisonous: 1%, 3 poisonous: 0.05%, all 4 poisonous: 1/1600 of a %
A person who had 5 shots, the probabilities are: all nonpoisonous: 77%, 1 poisonous: 20%, 2 poisonous: 2%
A person who had 6 shots, the probabilities are:
all nonpoisonous: 74%, 1 poisonous: 23%, 2 poisonous: 3%
A person who had 7 shots, the probabilities are: all nonpoisonous: 70%, 1 poisonous: 26%, 2 poisonous: 4%
A person who had 8 shots, the probabilities are:
all nonpoisonous: 66%, 1 poisonous: 28%, 2 poisonous: 5%, 3 poisonous 1%
I'll stop here since I doubt that no one has yet had 8 shots. If you look at the figures, you can see that people getting these shots are playing a game of Russian roulette with the odds increasing going against their favor. Remember though that this relies on two key assumptions made at the beginning of this post.
As you can see, a person who takes 8 shots risks a 2 out of 3 chance of NOT getting poisoned. I you presented this person with a bowl of 300 M&Ms and told them that 1 out of 3 of them was poisonous, would they reach in and take a handleful?
What got me was how the probability of getting only one poisonous shot out of many rose with each shot taken. After all, it only takes one to cause an injury or death. I'm sure that others here on GAW can add other interpretations of these numbers and I welcome them to do so. I just wanted to throw this out there are continue the discussion that was started yesterday.
I am also curious about the JnJ shot, which originally was a single dose, then they recommended it be supplemented with an mRNA booster. The clotting incidents from that shot, I read, were truly rare. I wonder what the chances of injury or death is to someone who only took the single JnJ jab.
By the way, nice probability analysis. Quant was my favorite math course in college.
so am I. no real info on the dangers of the J and J but a lot on Moderna, Pfizer and Astra Zeneca. had the J and J only. I am concerned and want info because that was the only shot that was non MNRA.
Yes it’s strange to me that I cannot find anything on J&J - positive or negative. Something tells me they did not want the J&J “counting” and needed the population to get the mRNA shots.
I suspected that as well. My husband had to get shot to keep his job. I told him it was his decision but I insisted he get J&J. No problem finding J&J. Then came boosters. It was nearly impossible to find J&J at that point. Finally found a pharmacy, but I firmly believe the goal was to get as much mRNA in people as they could.
Edit to add: just checked on vax stock locally in my area. 35 locations offer Moderna. 44 offer Pfizer. J&J? Eight.