📜 Decoding Russia's "New Generation Warfare" - Part 1/3 📜

Navigating the complex labyrinth of 21st-century geopolitics often feels akin to walking blindfolded in a constantly shifting maze. The fluctuating power dynamics, the evolving threats and alliances, and the increasingly blurred lines between war and peace, combatants and non-combatants demand a nuanced and agile understanding of military strategy and international relations. In this maelstrom of change and uncertainty, the Russian military doctrine, exemplified by its New Generation Warfare (NGW), offers a compelling study. This article aims to provide a 30,000-foot view of this strategic doctrine. By examining the foundations of NGW, we can gain a fresh lens to scrutinize current events, such as Russia's SMO in Ukraine or even more granularly, the Prigozhin "Mutiny".

Deriving from the vast canvas of Russia's history, culture, and political climate, NGW is not merely an aggressive approach, as it is often misconstrued. Instead, it is a survival strategy tailored to the rapidly changing geopolitical realities. An in-depth understanding of NGW can illuminate the hidden undercurrents shaping these events and provide crucial insights into Russia's strategic considerations and actions.

Theoretical Underpinnings of New Generation Warfare

To understand NGW from the Russian viewpoint, one must delve into the depths of Russian military thought. Here, NGW appears as an overarching strategy that encapsulates political, economic, and military aspects of national power. As articulated by Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Chief of the General Staff, the NGW model consists of eight clearly defined phases. Each phase serves as a cog in the wheel of a comprehensive strategic approach designed to preempt, deter, and respond to threats, embodying the ancient wisdom of Sun Tzu's philosophy of winning wars without fighting.

The first phase of NGW revolves around setting up the scene. Here, Russia applies all national instruments of power to create a favourable political, economic, and military environment. It works towards manipulating these sectors to maximize national interest, thereby implementing a pre-emptive and active defence strategy.

The second phase builds on the initial groundwork by isolating the potential adversary. Russia deploys a cocktail of diplomatic manoeuvres and informational campaigns designed to alienate the adversary and discourage support from potential allies. This strategy recognizes that in the contemporary world order, information has ascended as the pivotal currency of power.

📜 Decoding Russia's "New Generation Warfare" - Part 2/3 📜

The third and fourth stages mark a transition to covert operations. These operations are oriented towards internal destabilization of the adversary, following the age-old principle of "divide and conquer". In an era where military might alone doesn't dictate the outcomes of conflicts, these stages signify the importance of clandestine actions to disrupt and weaken the adversary from within.

Phase five stands at the cusp of overt operations, where Russia begins to utilize political opposition, local proxies, and special forces. This stage underlines the understanding that indirect methods often yield powerful results, minimizing the risks associated with full-scale warfare.

The sixth phase of the operation signifies the official commencement of military actions. The emphasis here is on speed and decisiveness to achieve predetermined objectives swiftly. This approach almost paved the way for a rapid resolution of the SMO as evidenced by Kiev's initial agreement to Russian demands (hyperlink to RT's article on the provisional agreement).

However, if a quick resolution proves unattainable, the strategy allows for a shift to a slower, more methodical approach, aimed at grinding down the enemy forces over time. This tactic was observed in Artemovsk, where it resulted in maximizing enemy losses while minimizing Russian manpower losses.

The strategy also underscores the importance of minimizing collateral damage, a consideration that consistently figures in discussions around ethical warfare. The contrasting tactics employed by Russia and Ukraine provide a stark illustration of this. On the one hand, Russia has taken on the task of literally rebuilding destroyed cities (Mariupol), institutions, and infrastructure. On the other hand, Kiev employed tactics of state terror against its former populace. This juxtaposition highlights the strategic and ethical nuances within the broader operational framework.

The seventh stage intends to bring a swift resolution to the conflict, forcing the adversary to accept new realities on the ground. It involves leveraging political, economic, and military achievements to negotiate advantageous terms.

The final phase is the most nuanced, involving peace-building measures aimed at winning hearts and minds. This stage seeks to ensure the long-term stability of the region, as opposed to merely enforcing a transient peace.

Deciphering Russia's Perspective

To grasp the essence of NGW, one must adopt the Russian perspective, acknowledging their unique historical experiences, cultural beliefs, and sociopolitical circumstances. Russian military theorist S.G. Chekinov, in his article "The Nature of Modern Warfare" published in the Russian Journal of Military Science, describes NGW as an "adaptive response" to contemporary geopolitical realities. From the Russian perspective, NGW isn't a doctrine of aggression but a strategy of active defence. It reflects an understanding that defence begins much before the first shot is fired.

In this regard, Russia's NGW theory is a testament to its innovative approach to national defence

The Innovativeness of NGW

Indeed, the NGW model represents a significant departure from traditional emphases on kinetic warfare, preferring instead to weave together an intricate tapestry of information and perception management, psychological operations, and strategic usage of non-military means to safeguard national interests. This innovative approach is underpinned by the understanding that the modern battlefield is not confined to a physical geographical area; it permeates political, economic, and informational domains, making them crucial theatres of conflict.

This shift reflects the transformation of warfare in the age of digital connectivity, where the narrative can be as powerful as the bullet, and perceptions often shape realities. Consequently, Russia has placed significant importance on the control and manipulation of information, investing heavily in cyber capabilities, strategic communication, and psychological operations, both as tools of defence and offence.

Understanding Russia's Motivation

To fully grasp the philosophy driving NGW, it's crucial to understand the historical context and geopolitical considerations that inform Russian strategic thought. Russia's experiences in the post-Soviet era, its regional security needs, NATO's eastward expansion, and its aspirations as a global power all contribute to the development of the NGW doctrine.

Russia's near encirclement by NATO and the US, its experiences in the Caucasus, and its involvement in conflicts in Syria and Ukraine have all informed its view of modern warfare. The existential threat from the West has spurred it to seek alternatives to conventional warfare, leading to the conceptualization and implementation of NGW.

Relevance to Contemporary Geopolitics

NGW's relevance extends beyond Russian borders. Its implications resonate in the larger context of global geopolitics, setting the tone for the nature of conflicts in the post-US-hegemony, multipolar era. It underscores the necessity for nations to adapt their defence strategies in response to changing global realities, necessitating a shift from traditional models of military strategy.

The rise of non-state actors, the advent of cyber and information warfare, the blurring of boundaries between war and peace - all these factors collectively signal the need for nations within the Global South to rethink their military doctrines in a manner similar to Russia's NGW theory. It underlines the reality that military might alone is insufficient to guarantee national security. Instead, a multi-faceted approach that integrates political, economic, and informational instruments of power is needed to effectively navigate the contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Conclusion

In essence, Russia's New Generation Warfare theory signifies an evolved understanding of the nature of contemporary conflicts, where battles are won not merely on land, sea, or air, but in the realms of information, economy, and psychology. It underlines the necessity to adapt and innovate in the face of changing global realities, a lesson of great value for all sovereign nations navigating the complex terrain of the 21st century's geopolitics.

Western critics no doubt perceive NGW as a threat, but from a Russian perspective, it's a doctrine of survival, an innovative and adaptive response to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment. In that sense, NGW isn't just a Russian strategy; it's a reflection of the evolution of warfare in the modern world, led by Russia.

Rather than viewing NGW solely through the lens of aggression or intimidation, it is crucial to understand its foundational philosophy rooted in the historical experiences, regional realities, and global aspirations of Russia. Only then can the world hope to engage effectively with Russia, fostering dialogue, building trust, and working towards a more secure and stable multipolar order.

From @DDGEOPOLITICS