Wagner Russia update : Where are they now?

posted 1 year ago by TomPaineSentMe 1 year ago by TomPaineSentMe +15 / -1

I think this is the 4th post I've done about where Wagner and Prighozin and others wound up after the mutiny/coup attempt.

One big development is that Wagner troops are indeed in Belarus. In fact, they are on the border with Poland. Which has worried Poland.

Poland plans to deploy 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus

https://apnews.com/article/poland-belarus-border-troops-e4eaf9ad104063453295b22bf05ab31b

Two Belarussian helicopters were said to stray into Poland last week.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66410230

Ukraine accused Wagner troops of Psyop manuevers on the Polish borders

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/08/10/250-Wagner-troops-carry-out-psychological-operation-on-Polish-border-Kyiv

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– The3rdKey 1 point 1 year ago +1 / -0

I work with 2 guys that are from & live in Poland and they are totally unconcerned and know nothing about any of this. Makes me wonder how much of this is really happening.

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– TomPaineSentMe [S] 2 points 1 year ago +2 / -0

Depends how much they pay attention to stuff like this.

Like how many Americans know about this

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-threatens-consequences-us-warships-actions-south-china-sea-rcna76472

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/southchinasea/philippines-usa-southchinasea-08092023100820.html

I knew vaguely we have tension going on and it's easy to find news stories including from yesterday about it.....but it's not something I think of.

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– The3rdKey 2 points 1 year ago +2 / -0

Very true and both are programmers with a heavy workload. The only reason I asked them about it is because Poland requires that they be allowed to have lots of vacation time like they do in many European countries and they act like nothing is going on. With this war going on so close, I would expect everyone to be at least a little bit concerned.

Here's a Map: (They both live in Krakow) https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.4TCg2S39sx958FsBWvz_AwAAAA%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=758bdc328ddca6516d4b4aad89bd0be275578fa530c81f69399425d77f049d5f&ipo=images

I know these people live in a volatile part of the world, so maybe they're just used to it. But it occurs to me that maybe we're being told that it's worse than it is. It certainly wouldn't be anything new and these days I'm suspicious of everything our media tells us.

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– TomPaineSentMe [S] 2 points 1 year ago +2 / -0

Well it's like 600 miles to the Ukraine border, but the war is in the East another several hundred miles. Western Ukraine does not look like War Zone.

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– TomPaineSentMe [S] 1 point 1 year ago +1 / -0

As for Prighozin, a high level Ukranian has said the Putin and Prighozin were working together during the mutiny.

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/ukraine-accuses-russian-president-vladimir-putin-of-staging-shortlived-mutiny-with-exally-yevgeny-prigozhin/news-story/5a36e943767b2a1da60354a340832e08

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary Oleksiy Danilo claimed the short-lived conflict was a ploy to eliminate those disloyal to Putin's regime.

“Today we can already say that it was a special operation coordinated with Putin to expose those generals who were not entirely loyal to Putin and his entourage,” Danilov told Ukrainian media this week.

“And we believe that this will happen in the fall or winter of this year because the number of people who understand where Putin has led them to is increasing every day.”

This sounds like what folks suspected....but it's always a good idea to take Ukranian/Russian claims with a pinch of salt.

Also the US was talking to Russia during the mutiny.

In another twist, it was revealed US diplomats had reached out to Russian counterparts in “real time” to discuss security concerns during the Wagner mercenary group revolt.

The relatively rare Russia-US contact came during the mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group as it briefly took control of a major city. The upheaval sparked fears in Washington that nuclear-armed Russia could descend into chaos.

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– TomPaineSentMe [S] 1 point 1 year ago +1 / -0

Some grains of salt are already appearing.

The Institute for War is saying that Putin's deal with Prigozhin may have collapsed and Wagner Troops are already leaving Belarussia and more will leave next week. Apparently Belarussian President Lukashenko found out that Putin isn't planning on paying for Wagner

Speculations about the Wagner Group’s withdrawal from Belarus suggest that aspects of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24 have collapsed. A Russian insider source claimed on August 8 that Wagner forces are conducting their first stage of withdrawal from Belarus by bussing groups of 500 to 600 personnel from Belarus to Krasnodar Krai and Voronezh and Rostov oblasts and that the second stage will begin after August 13.[1] The insider source and a Wagner-affiliated source speculated that Wagner forces may be leaving Belarus because Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko refused to finance Wagner when he discovered that Russia would not be paying for Wagner as he had evidently expected.[2] Putin and Lukashenko allowed Wagner forces and Prigozhin to continue to operate in Belarus after the armed rebellion.[3] The insider source claimed that a small group of Wagner instructors would remain in Belarus to train Belarusian forces.[4] ISW has not observed visual evidence of Wagner forces moving out of Belarus, however. The insider source claimed on August 6 that Wagner forces that did not deploy to Libya “urgently” went on leave in Russia, and that Wagner's command called on their fighters to keep in touch because new orders could come at any time.[5] Wagner-affiliated sources claimed that the main Wagner forces will “activate” at the end of August but did not elaborate on the statement.[6] Claims that Wagner forces are moving out of Belarus — a relatively safe haven for Wagner and Prigozhin — back to Russia, Wagner command’s mentions of new orders, and claims of the future “activation” of Wagner forces at the end of August likely suggest that aspects of the deal that allowed Wagner to move to Belarus and continue operations there and in Africa have collapsed.

This is a useful viewpoint.

**The validity of these claims and the future of the Wagner Group remain unclear at the time of publication. **

Essentially they are saying the issue of Prighozin still needs to be resolved by Putin.

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– TomPaineSentMe [S] 1 point 1 year ago +1 / -0

Another grain of salt. The British DOD is saying Putin just signed a law to allow the Rosgvardia, the Russian National Guard who act as his personal defense force to get heavy weaponry including attack helicopters and artillery

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1688789574552596480

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russias-200-000-strong-national-120144124.html

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