Thank you! I'm a bit busy this last week and this week. Ill add some stuff I've found...

Another 236B in unscheduled short term bill auctions announced today for Wed/Thur. How does a 1/4 trillion in treasury auctions just pop out of nowhere? 🤔

https://twitter.com/BartsQuandry/status/1724460245391724730

Here's a plain-English 🧵 on the Oct CPI report, including how the typical American family has lost the equivalent of $7,400 in annual pay since Jan '21; oh, and get ready for the most expensive Thanksgiving ever - Turkey isn't the only thing burning this year...

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1724444038751826330

First, the headlines: CPI components were mixed for the month with net change less than 0.1% since Sep; index is up 3.2% Y/Y while core (excludes food and energy) is up 4.0%, twice the Fed's alleged 2% target, but no one believes them anymore...

Prices are up over 17% since Jan '21 w/ many consumer staples up much more, like energy and food up over 20%...

Meanwhile, wages haven't kept up with inflation; besides Feb '21, real hourly earnings have never returned to their Jan '21 level:

As employers cut back hours, weekly (and therefore yearly) earnings have declined even more, now down about 5% since Jan '21, and roughly flat since Jun '22 despite large nominal pay increases:

Real weekly earnings have now declined 4 months in a row, and for 27 of the last 31 months, annual inflation has outpaced earnings growth:

For typical American family, annual real earnings loss is almost $5,400 and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs, compounding the pain by about $2,000 annually; it's the equivalent of the family losing almost $7,400 in annual income compared to Jan '21:

If you're trying to buy a house today, it's even worse: the monthly mortgage payment on a median price home today is 112% higher than it was in Jan '21 (extra $13k/yr); increased home prices and interest rates have more than doubled the cost of homeownership - unsustainable...

And whether you rent or buy, it's going to cost you 26% more to stay warm this winter compared to Jan '21, and 76% more if you use home heating oil...

Unfortunately, although the monthly change in CPI was essentially flat, this doesn't seem likely to continue as the Treasury continues its spending and borrowing binge; we still aren't trending towards 2%...

And just in time for the holidays - get ready for the most expensive Thanksgiving ever next week, w/ many of staples for America's holiday up 20% or more:

Exxon Mobil Insider Trading Alert 🚨

Board of Directors member Jeffrey Ubben bought 250,000 $XOM shares last week worth $26.5 million

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1723825147780518111

Oil execs have been buying and tech execs have been selling while investors doing the opposite. 🤷‍♂️

Debut episode of Across The Spread Podcast:

Bank of Japan Fires Back At Markets By Killing It's Own Yield Curve Control Policy

-UST yields rise explained -BOJ “doing the tightening” for Fed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnbK2gt7HfI

(BOJ Series Pt.1)

Weston Nakamura is the host of this podcast and has a wealth of experience in the Japanese markets. The purpose of this podcast is to provide commentary on market developments coming from the Asia-Pacific region that impact the US market here.

He started his career at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo in the Foreign Exchabge Market. I also recommend his twitter account @acrossthespread

USDJPY very close to hitting 152 a couple nights ago. Looks like Bank of Japan or someone big intervened when I took a look yesterday morning. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDJPY/

They are #LosingControl

YAHOO FINANCE - Japan’s US Corporate Bond Sell Off Brings Risks: Credit Weekly https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-us-corporate-bond-sell-220001436.html

"Such moves by Japanese investors, traditionally among the biggest buyers of US corporates, could reduce global market liquidity and increase the risk of volatility. Demand for US company debt from Asian investors, including in Japan, has already noticeably softened in recent months," ... "Japanese investors sold a record net $17.2 billion of US corporate debt in August, the latest Treasury Department data show, as the highest hedging costs in more than 20 years make the securities less attractive." ...

⚠️ $JPY CARRY TRADE UNWINDING IS STARTING TO BITE IN JAPAN 👀 ⚠️

https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1723572052031152171

How is it starting to bite?

Because the heavy selling of offshore USD bond is a symptom of jpy carry trade positions being closed (likely at a steep loss at current prices)

BLOOMBERG - Japan’s US Corporate Bond Sell Off Brings Risks: Credit Weekly

https://archive.ph/SPa6L

FINANCIAL TIMES - Overdue commercial property loans hit 10-year high at US banks https://archive.ph/nuLVQ

“It’s not a hiccup — it’s not Covid and then recover,” said Leo Huang, the head of commercial real estate debt at Ellington Management Group, an asset manager. “Property prices are going to come down and loan delinquencies are going to keep going up.”

The third-quarter data did not capture the impact of this week’s bankruptcy filing by desk rental company WeWork, one of the largest office tenants in cities from New York to San Francisco.

With more than $70bn in commercial real estate loans outstanding, Wells Fargo is the nation’s largest lender in the category, and the most exposed to property losses. Its past-due property loans rose more than 50 per cent to $3.4bn in the third quarter, up from just $400mn a year ago.

Americans continue to ransack their retirement savings, survey finds

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-continue-to-ransack-their-retirement-savings-survey-finds-123049227.html

"The ravaging of retirement accounts is on a roll."

"The number of participants taking hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) was up 13% in the third quarter versus the second quarter, according to a new survey from Bank of America, which tracks about 4 million clients’ employee benefit programs."

This is how you break large-cap stocks which these retirement savings are in.