This is the continuation of conversations I've had on GAW about the war in Ukraine.
The theme basically was what was actually happening and what folks wanted to happen.
I was told recently the war was going to over before Winter. Another time I was told the Russians had turned the tide.
War will be over by Winter Winter is a month away. The war will slow down then because the weather makes it very, very hard. Big operations and counter operations slow down and each side works on building up defenses. It's already started to snow occasionally in Ukraine. Barring some big settlement, which I don't see on the horizon this war will continue.
**Fighting in Avdiivka ** Avdiika is city near Donetsk, one of Regions where fighting has been going on years, even before the 2022 invasion.
This is from 2017
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-fighting-avdiivka-1.3962203
You can see from this map why this is important. https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/2307832/institute-study-war.webp?w=790&f=4c2a0678223f7cd5fe38eaa12e0fd78a
It's surrounded on three sides by Russian controlled territory, and it just into the front line. It seems like it would be easy picking, but the terrain makes it tough to take.....there's open fields around it. So attacking forces are susceptible to Ukraine's drones and long range artillery fire.
45 days ago Russia tried to take this city again. It's let to some of heaviest fighting of the war.
This post is a follow up to this discussion on GAW where I suggested following up on the situation as a reality check.
https://greatawakening.win/p/17rSjJal6H/siege-of-avdiivka-russian-forces/c/
I particularly wanted to focus on this comment by Moose Antlers https://greatawakening.win/p/17rSjJal6H/x/c/4Tz049hTMHR
He points out that *defenders have the advantage in the war right now. Which is there's so little change in territory recently. *Russia is not using air power
Ukraine's still got enough to credibly threaten Russian air power.
- It's not going to be a city they can just take.
Russia's going to have to flatten the city.
So what's the situation today. Flattening the city seems to be on going.
Russian has failed to encircle the city. They tried at least two major offensives previously and a third began this week.
The tactics seem to be different though
After losing hundreds of armored vehicles in direct assaults on Ukrainian positions in and around Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian armed forces are switching to dismounted infantry assaults.
This is similar to the wave assaults Russia used to take Bahkmut,. It's an extremely costly way to fight a war. It took them months to take Bahkmut and according to some analysts degraded their war fighting capability....the biggest issue may have been the split with Wagner who made up the human wave assaults.
The losses at Avdiivka are said to be similar to the losses at Bakhmut. On the worst day of fighting Russia was supposed to have lost 1,400 soldiers in a single day with many of them at Avdiivka.
Russia has recently lost some territory in Bakhmut.
As I said last month, even if they take Avdiivka, it will be very costly and this war will be going on next year.
Other issues going on.
Russia is getting supplies from North Korea and Iran
US says North Korea delivered 1,000 containers of equipment and munitions to Russia for Ukraine war A surge in rail traffic on North Korea-Russia border suggests arms supply to Russia, think tank says
The recent North Korea satellite launch was said to be with Russian help exchanged for the weapons.
Russia is using Iranian made drones to attack Ukraine and are building a plant in Russia to manufacture them
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/construction-progresses-russian-plant-iranian-drones-report-2023-11-13/
Despite the headway, neither the United States nor its allies have imposed sanctions on the plant's owner, JSC Alabuga, or its associated companies, said the Institute for Science and International Security report.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-iran-strengthen-ties-trusting-atmosphere-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-10-24/
Moscow just did a drone attack against Kyiv and Kviy followed with a drone attack against Moscow.
Ukraine overnight tried to attack Moscow with dozens of drones, Russian authorities said Sunday, just a day after Ukrainian officials reported that Russia had launched its most intense drone attack on Kyiv since the beginning of its full-scale war in 2022.
Drone warfare and counterwarfare is a big part of this war. Preparing the battlefield now means controlling drones with Jammers.
Ukraine has established bridgeposts across the Dnipro river near Kherson in the past month
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/23/the-last-thing-russian-troops-do-before-attacking-strap-backpack-drone-jammers-to-their-vehicles/?sh=7ba5e6257b88
Electronic warfare is going to be a big part of warfare going forward.