It's a gamble. It's a religious waiver, so there's no clear criteria on what's needed to meet that threshold. If the officer reading your submission approves it, you're good to go, otherwise there's no mechanism to appeal to a court inside the waiver process.

I don't know what the chances are, but in the case it gets revoked then it's on record that you've been denied entry into the United States and that will stick with you for every process after that, versus withdrawing the application at the last second and going for a tourist visa or something.