I know there's a lot of skepticism, but I happen to have a degree in molecular biology and a real interest in infectious disease. H5N1 doesn't cross over to humans much. When it does, it seems to be a one-off type of scenario and humans don't spread it to other humans. But the catch is that it kills 30%+ (varies from outbreak to outbreak) of the people it infects. That's Black Plague level numbers, and if you don't know the history of how it absolutely decimated Europe but also the Near East and Africa, you should read about it. It's society-crushing. It's totally destabilizing.
If I were one of these scientists, I'd absolutely want some sort of prework done on a vaccine. Anything, just in case the worst did happen. We're really just a mutation or two away from that happening.
Why a vaccine and not a treatment? Because of the way viruses infect. It takes only a few viral particles to trigger an infection, but once it gets into a cell, it'll turn that cell into a virus factor. They make thousands of copies before the cell's defenses kick in and kill the cell. The growth is exponential. By the time you ever start feeling symptoms (that is, by the time you're starting to mount an immune response), you've got thousands to millions of cells infected already. When you give antiviral drugs, it slows that way down, but you're already well into the infectious phase by the time you'd ever think to see a doctor and get a prescription for Tamiflu. The result is that no antiviral really works terribly well for acute infections like this. Even the best of them, which are most effective in the test tube antibody tests, reduce your course of symptoms by a day or two. Your body still has to the lion's share of the work.
The best solution is to prime the immune system because it's your best defensive tool. This is the thing that's going to save your life. Tell people to eat healthy, exercise, get out in the sun, sleep 8hrs/night, and reduce their stress (all proven to improve immunity). But also have scientists trying to anticipate this problem in case the worst happens.
And most importantly, we should have laws that specifically bar panic-driven medical tyranny. We should consider those things and what an appropriate public health response looks like before people's good intentions and general ignorance gets abused again.
Not sure why you were downvoted, but the black plague analog is essentially a false equivalency because medical protocol and medicine were nowhere where we are now.
With proper isolation and antibiotics, it is kept in check and not nearly as deadly assuming you are smart enough to know when something is wrong with you.
Instead, they put people together, didn't replace (and burn) infected materials, boils burst on people, etc.
There's a reason why the bubonic plague is essentially a non issue today, and it's not because it was deleted from existence after all.
I know there's a lot of skepticism, but I happen to have a degree in molecular biology and a real interest in infectious disease. H5N1 doesn't cross over to humans much. When it does, it seems to be a one-off type of scenario and humans don't spread it to other humans. But the catch is that it kills 30%+ (varies from outbreak to outbreak) of the people it infects. That's Black Plague level numbers, and if you don't know the history of how it absolutely decimated Europe but also the Near East and Africa, you should read about it. It's society-crushing. It's totally destabilizing.
If I were one of these scientists, I'd absolutely want some sort of prework done on a vaccine. Anything, just in case the worst did happen. We're really just a mutation or two away from that happening.
Why a vaccine and not a treatment? Because of the way viruses infect. It takes only a few viral particles to trigger an infection, but once it gets into a cell, it'll turn that cell into a virus factor. They make thousands of copies before the cell's defenses kick in and kill the cell. The growth is exponential. By the time you ever start feeling symptoms (that is, by the time you're starting to mount an immune response), you've got thousands to millions of cells infected already. When you give antiviral drugs, it slows that way down, but you're already well into the infectious phase by the time you'd ever think to see a doctor and get a prescription for Tamiflu. The result is that no antiviral really works terribly well for acute infections like this. Even the best of them, which are most effective in the test tube antibody tests, reduce your course of symptoms by a day or two. Your body still has to the lion's share of the work.
The best solution is to prime the immune system because it's your best defensive tool. This is the thing that's going to save your life. Tell people to eat healthy, exercise, get out in the sun, sleep 8hrs/night, and reduce their stress (all proven to improve immunity). But also have scientists trying to anticipate this problem in case the worst happens.
And most importantly, we should have laws that specifically bar panic-driven medical tyranny. We should consider those things and what an appropriate public health response looks like before people's good intentions and general ignorance gets abused again.
Not sure why you were downvoted, but the black plague analog is essentially a false equivalency because medical protocol and medicine were nowhere where we are now.
With proper isolation and antibiotics, it is kept in check and not nearly as deadly assuming you are smart enough to know when something is wrong with you.
Instead, they put people together, didn't replace (and burn) infected materials, boils burst on people, etc.
There's a reason why the bubonic plague is essentially a non issue today, and it's not because it was deleted from existence after all.