China: The Helpless Giant
(www.zerohedge.com)
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I also read that article. He gets the big picture mostly correct... demographic nightmare, stuck in middle income trap, dependency on foreign investment, waste, fraud, debt levels, etc. but he got some things wrong. For example he said China is 3rd in landmass, but it is actually 4th behind the U.S. The correct order is:
Russia
Canada (by a small amount over the U.S)
U.S. (by a small amount over China)
China
There is a big drop off after China, and all the other countries are quite a bit smaller. Getting that wrong is not a big deal... but it is a stupid mistake that detracts from the credibility of all the other things he is saying in the article (which are basically all correct).
However, China's problems are even worse. He completely missed the extremely small amount of arable land in China, and the horrific effects of pollution contaminating that land, the groundwater, etc. He also missed the massive debt of all the shadow banks, so the terrible debt problem he describes is only a fraction of the size of the true levels of debt they have to deal with.
The title of his article should have been "China is Fucked".
p.s. The Chinese rulers know that China is fucked. They may in fact be behind the effort to depopulate the U.S. (to take all the farmland and resources for themselves). We don't know if this is true yet, but there is probably an element of truth to it at a minimum.
Even so, keep in mind it is not the Chinese people that are responsible, in the same way that the people of the U.S. are not responsible for the actions of the U.S. deep state either...
China has seen one of the greatest explosions in economic growth that the world has ever seen. But the corrupt and communist government squandered it. They’ve over leveraged themselves, massively polluted their land and water, and most of their buildings and infrastructure are so poorly constructed that much of it may not even last a couple more decades. The stars seem to be aligning for an epic collapse that will push them right back into the third world.
Correct. They are still borderline 3rd world now in terms of per capita income (that "purchasing power parity" bullshit is fraudulent).
I don't see any way out of this mess for them. They at least need to earn enough in foreign exchange to pay for imported food and energy, since they have so little of those resources themselves... but even that is going to be difficult. If they manage to get rid of the CCP, then they should have a decent chance (especially if we help them once the CCP is gone).
The problem is further compounded by the fact that their growth is mostly attributable to the west rolling over and handing China its manufacturing and IP (thanks to China bribing its politicians). Not only will this gravy train end, but there will probably be a backlash against China. Their ‘competitive advantage’ will disappear in a heartbeat.