There's been some speculation that the recent shooting incident involving Donald Trump was staged. I'd like to explain why this theory doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

The Facts

• Distance: The shooter was approximately 150 meters (164 yards) away
• Weapon: AR-15 style semi-automatic rifle
• Result: Trump was grazed on the ear

Why It Couldn't Be Staged

1. Extreme Precision Required An AR-15 at 150 meters (164 yards) can achieve 1-2 MOA (Minute of Angle) accuracy in ideal conditions. This translates to about 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inch) groupings at 100 meters (109 yards), or 3.8-7.6 cm (1.5-3 inch) groupings at our distance of 150 meters (164 yards). A human ear is roughly 6-7 cm (2.4-2.8 inches) tall and 3-4 cm (1.2-1.6 inches) wide. Deliberately hitting just the ear would require inhuman precision.

2. Uncontrollable Variables Wind, minute shooter movements, and target motion can easily cause several centimeters (inches) of deviation at this distance. These factors make deliberate "near misses" extremely risky.

3. Unrealistic Risk If this were staged, the risk of serious injury or death would be unacceptably high. No reasonable person would agree to such a dangerous stunt.

4. Unnecessary Complexity A staged event would likely opt for a much more controllable scenario. The complexity and danger of a long-distance shot make no sense for a fake attempt.

5. Consistent with Real Attempt The outcome (grazing the ear) is much more consistent with a genuine attempt where the shooter missed their intended target (likely the head or torso) due to the difficulties of the shot.

6. Shooter's Background Reports indicate the shooter had no known connection to Trump's security or staff, making a coordinated fake attempt highly implausible.

Conclusion

While it's natural to question unusual events, the technical realities of this shooting strongly support that it was a real, failed attempt rather than a staged incident. The precision required to deliberately graze an ear at 150 meters (164 yards) is beyond practical possibility, and the risks involved in such a stunt would be unjustifiable.