Preface: I am not an economist, nor am I particularly smart.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump wins in November. Let's also assume that he manages to enact all the various economic policies he's proposing:
- Reducing the size & scope of government
- Bringing jobs back to America by reducing corporate taxes for business making American goods
- Increased taxes (tariffs) for goods made outside America
- Various tax breaks for individuals (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, etc.)
It seems to me like the tariffs will hit as soon as the law is put in place, whereas the tax breaks won't show until the next tax season. Reviving American manufacturing will take a few years, minimum; until then, the prices for things like semiconductors will be higher, since they're made outside the country.
To be clear, I'm not saying these are bad ideas -- I do think it will benefit the economy in the long term. I just want to know if I should prepare for a short-term crunch, or if I'm reading the tea leaves wrong.
Newtons Law, Energy sector layoffs. Exploration will suffer, building rigs will suffer. The big boys will sit back and pump and leave the exploration to the small guys who work with investors just trying to make a slim buck. $85 was the magic number a few years back.