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Virginia is going all RED. We have the bottom's up early voter date through 15 OCT. So far, 801,778 votes have been tabulated.
Early ballots by district DistrictTotal Early VotesIn-PersonMail Partisan Lean CD 1 102,400 75,498 26,902 +6 R CD 586,412 68,421 17,991 +7 R CD 677,919 62,463 15,456 +14 R CD 774,717 52,66422,053 -1 R CD 274,310 51,11323,197 +2 R CD 1070,537 47,20723,330 -6 R CD 470,074 52,00918,065 -16 R CD 968,533 54,14214,391 +23 R CD 1164,900 40,11924,781 -18 R CD 863,324 38,97524,349 -26 R CD 348,652 32,04216,610 -17 R
The correlation between Republican lean and in-person early votes is a whopping 70%. Put these in Excel and use the correlation formula to check my math.
The Republican Congressional Districts are dramatically outvoting the Democratic-leaning CDs. Can any other conclusion be drawn, other than that Democrats aren't enthusiastic this cycle?
Note CD 9 is the only anomaly. It's in Appalachia. There was probably lower EV turnout to date due to the Hurricane or people just wanting to vote on Election Day. If I took out CD9 data, the correlation of lean to in-person vote jumps to 80%!
Think of how powerful this data is: 800,000 votes by geography or polls with a sample of 400 and lots of bias.
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-by-district/