NJ residents here on GAW, can you confirm this?
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As of end of day Tuesday (the statistics are always a day behind it seems), Republicans hold a slight lead in early votes cast. Add in that independents are more likely to vote Trump than Harris and I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris needs to bridge at least a 5-10 ten point gap to take back the lead.
Disclaimer: this only shows party affiliation, not actual votes. (Me personally, I actually think far more Dems vote Trump than Republicans vote Harris, so more like a 10-15 point gap, but that’s just my personal opinion)
That would be just an excellent thing to see.
I like to use New Hampshire as an example because, depending on the source, they have anywhere from 800,000 (this number makes far more sense when you look at the average amount of people registered per state) registered voters to 1.1 million registered voters. The first number being approx how many people voted in the state in 2020 and the second number being higher than the amount of eligible voters in the state. So, either way you look at it, New Hampshire either has 100% turnout or 100% voter registration. Normal voter turnout is somewhere in the 50-65% range depending on various factors. The media loves to misconstrue what voter turnout means. You can either use the number of voters compared to eligible voters or the number of voters compared to registered voters or even the number of voters compared to total citizens of the State.
An NPC might ask what the big deal is. Well, let's say 60% of registered voters actually vote in New Hampshire. That would be 480,000 to 660,000 total votes (depending on whether you take the 800,000, or the 1,100,000 as the actual number of registered voters. Let's just use the 800,000. Let's say that 480,000 of them voted and let's say it goes 75% to Trump. That gives you 360,000 Trump votes (the actual 2020 count was 365,000 to Trump) and 120,000 to Biden (actual vote count to Biden was 425,000). This leaves a gap of 240,000. Let's say that you are the Democrats, you're pissed cause Trump walloped Biden. So you trot out 305,000 extra votes bringing Biden up to 425,000. 480,000 plus 305,000, well that's 785,000. Which, compared to either the 800,000 or the 1,100,000 is a turnout of 98% or 71%. The media ran with the second number, Since it is difficult to pin down the exact amount of registered voters in New Hampshire in 2020, I can't tell you what the actual voter turnout number should be, but my guess is that it is closer to the 98% than the 71%, cause the 71% assumes that every eligible voter is also registered to vote. So again, New Hampshire is an excellent example of how screwed up our election system has become.
We have cheating from all side. There's never 100% turn out on anything. If there is, I check all ballots and do audit.
You are likely more credible than the MSM on TV.