Ukraine's hits on Russian oil infrastructure are pinpricks. Russia has realigned its trade to China and India with new pipelines. The idea that the US with "control" Russia oil because of a handful of irritating, overhyped drone strikes on unguarded pipelines is ludicrous.

But as you said, overall, the play makes sense. Trump's realigning the dollar with real value. It's still a fiat currency, but the petrodollar system helps keep it stable. He can't force Congress to quit spending stupidly, but he can shore up the system for a little longer.