Glenn Diesen hosted a discussion on the likely use of nuclear weapons against Europe to restore deterrence. He clarifies the argument is predictive rather than normative. European leaders have become directly involved in attacks on Russia through weapons supplies, targeting, NATO territory use, and contractors. Russia will first respond conventionally against facilities and logistics centers. Diesen assesses that further European escalation makes a limited tactical nuclear strike by Russia more likely than not. He points to the absence of any defined NATO victory, the sabotage of the Minsk and Istanbul agreements, and four years without diplomacy. Leaders continue to claim the conflict remains only between Russia and Ukraine despite mass production of deeper-strike weapons and open dates for direct European attacks. Diesen contrasts this with Biden's earlier warnings on F-16s and notes that crossing from proxy to direct war will trigger nuclear response. The piece rejects the label of pro-Russian for simply identifying the escalation path.
Glenn Diesen hosted a discussion on the likely use of nuclear weapons against Europe to restore deterrence. He clarifies the argument is predictive rather than normative. European leaders have become directly involved in attacks on Russia through weapons supplies, targeting, NATO territory use, and contractors. Russia will first respond conventionally against facilities and logistics centers. Diesen assesses that further European escalation makes a limited tactical nuclear strike by Russia more likely than not. He points to the absence of any defined NATO victory, the sabotage of the Minsk and Istanbul agreements, and four years without diplomacy. Leaders continue to claim the conflict remains only between Russia and Ukraine despite mass production of deeper-strike weapons and open dates for direct European attacks. Diesen contrasts this with Biden's earlier warnings on F-16s and notes that crossing from proxy to direct war will trigger nuclear response. The piece rejects the label of pro-Russian for simply identifying the escalation path.
SOURCE: https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2066053453332258986 SOURCE (mirror): https://xcancel.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2066053453332258986