What's especially funny is the people saying this usually think they're smarter than you, and acting like they're the ones thinking logically. While they are actually asking you to use "a hunch" instead of calculate actual odds which would be the only way to know which is more likely.
It's funny that they have such a disdain for math and then bring up "what's more likely.. ", which is inherently a math based proposition.
What's especially funny is the people saying this usually think they're smarter than you, and acting like they're the ones thinking logically. While they are actually asking you to use "a hunch" instead of calculate actual odds which would be the only way to know which is more likely.