The CCP space junk is 6h18m from landing, travelling at over 38 thousand MPH and 146 km above the surface - and falling
(orbit.ing-now.com)
?? Theory ??
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They only predict because it is fully functional controlled entry into Mars... this isn't. Ever heard of the graveyard where they can actually steer bad space junk in if they can control re-entry. 161 times already:
https://gizmodo.com/this-watery-graveyard-holds-161-sunken-spaceships-1703212211
A probe landing on Mars encounters an atmosphere that is only 1% of the density of Earth's atmosphere. Practically vacuum. Perturbing forces are much less.