Hurricane models are showing impact anywhere from Corpus Christi, Texas to New Orleans, La. That coastal area is the heart of the U.S. oil and petrochemicals industry. Probably a 90% chance that it only becomes a Cat-1 or 2, does some local damage and then moves on. It's that other 10% that we worry about. The gulf is very warm now and has more than enough heat potential to support a powerful major hurricane. Conditions are ripe for rapid intensification on Sunday and Monday.
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My favorite site is mikes weather page. Its an aggregate of lots of different sources and models. Getting to our time of year to shine.
www.spaghettimodels.com
I've stayed through enough hurricanes to know which computer models to trust for direction or intensity, and which sites have the most accurate information. I also know very well when something is being over-hyped.
When the GFS models, the Canadian and the Euro models all agree on landfall along the upper Texas or Louisiana coast, then it's not just a possibility. All of the models are converging on a consensus. Also, there is a blocking high that will keep the storm moving to the NW into Louisiana or Texas. Some models have it stalling just inland from the coast of Louisiana for a day before drifting NW.
The worst of them have the storm hitting just West of Houston, around Freeport or Matagorda Bay.
Anyway, I just wanted to provide a heads-up. I think the models nailed the path, but not the intensity of the storm yet. It could affect the Houston Ship Channel, or refineries in Port Arthur and Beaumont, Texas, or it could hit Lake Charles again. We'll know by Sunday exactly where it is going.
Who is calling the system "Invest 99L"? Not the National Hurricane Center. They say it isn't even formed into a storm yet. They expect it to mainly affect Central America and Mexico and perhaps send some rain toward Texas.
Based on available information, I don't "expect oil rigs to shut down."
Have you boarded up your windows and evacuated?
What's wrong with people?
Yeah, because [they]'re spaghetti models are so accurate, right?
https://rsoe-edis.org/eventMap
I cannot find it.
It isn't a thing yet is why. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar