"Taiwan can't win a war against China. That's a fact.
Taiwan can make an invasion by China to be cost prohibitive. That is their deterrent policy. Dig in deep enough to dissuade Chinese aggression.
In the event of war; their policy turns to holding out while banking on third-party international support.
Longer they hold out, the greater the chance of international intervention in a bloody costly invasion.
Is international intervention likely? Depends on how bloody the invasion is. A massive bombing campaign would certainly apply pressure on those watching from the sidelines. Under a Trump administration, it is quite possible US intervention will play a big role, be it limited or not.
China has a narrow golden window of opportunity for invasion. That window has yet to come. They may be forced, depending on Taiwan's actions (or third party), to engage in a policy of direct force against Taiwan, outside that window. If so, it will cost them dearly.
The narrow window in question is the ability to commit to a short-lived invasion while holding off international pressure. Achieve their goal, the international community is less likely to help a post-surrender Taiwan. A Taiwan under siege with mounting casualties in a drawn-out invasion is much more likely to garner outside intervention to its side."
"Taiwan can't win a war against China. That's a fact.
Taiwan can make an invasion by China to be cost prohibitive. That is their deterrent policy. Dig in deep enough to dissuade Chinese aggression.
In the event of war; their policy turns to holding out while banking on third-party international support.
Longer they hold out, the greater the chance of international intervention in a bloody costly invasion.
Is international intervention likely? Depends on how bloody the invasion is. A massive bombing campaign would certainly apply pressure on those watching from the sidelines. Under a Trump administration, it is quite possible US intervention will play a big role, be it limited or not.
China has a narrow golden window of opportunity for invasion. That window has yet to come. They may be forced, depending on Taiwan's actions (or third party), to engage in a policy of direct force against Taiwan, outside that window. If so, it will cost them dearly.
The narrow window in question is the ability to commit to a short-lived invasion while holding off international pressure. Achieve their goal, the international community is less likely to help a post-surrender Taiwan. A Taiwan under siege with mounting casualties in a drawn-out invasion is much more likely to garner outside intervention to its side."
This^^
https://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2019/06/a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-will-not.html?showComment=1561393326811#:~:text=June%2024%2C%202019%20at%2012,outside%20intervention%20to%20its%20side.